MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x615adf8eb62fade7cde0217ef782fc3b5170eddeacf1d4cbec643065dbf8d28a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 33,013$15,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,102.08 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 54c | 28,635$15,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,077.64 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 48c | 7,717$3,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,721.65 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 51c | 4,273$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,112.39 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 52c | 2,430$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.6 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 51c | 1,892$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.12 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 61c | 825.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.89 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 56c | 613.21$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.79 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 59c | 525.97$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.65 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 56c | 510.11$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.12 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 43c | 426.56$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.45 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b43…0714backed Over | 48c | 416.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.31 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 55c | 366.25$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.03 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Over | 54c | 353.91$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.74 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…1173backed Under | 47c | 303.02$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.42 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 56c | 216.49$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.56 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 52c | 215.88$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.98 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 56c | 199.42$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 66c | 193.83$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 11c | 182.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 56c | 169.66$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.65 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 36c | 120.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Over | 59c | 117.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 63c | 117.9$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 60c | 113.14$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Under | 26c | 98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 29c | 94.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 41c | 91.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 60c | 50.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…c1c8backed Under | 47c | 41.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Over | 56c | 40.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 56c | 33.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Under | 46c | 33.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 49c | 30.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 47c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7891…c020backed Under | 47c | 25.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 58c | 24.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x982c…0d6ebacked Over | 56c | 21.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 66c | 20.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 68c | 14.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit TigersMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 12.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.