MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x972bf1efdfb94a8b82a97e192f2721d81cbcec00afedd810faddfa0b8880ee56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Detroit Tigers | 52c | 14,168$7,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,800.86 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 47c | 11,464$5,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,372.64 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins | 44c | 11,189$4,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,964.41 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Detroit Tigers | 53c | 3,509$1,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.14 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 55c | 3,191$1,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,767.03 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Detroit Tigers | 42c | 2,427$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,417.36 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Detroit Tigers | 52c | 1,871$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.09 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Detroit Tigers | 73c | 1,718$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.86 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Detroit Tigers | 50c | 1,398$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.2 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Detroit Tigers | 63c | 1,039$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.56 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 29c | 204$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Minnesota Twins | 52c | 160.41$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Detroit Tigers | 53c | 137.44$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Detroit Tigers | 45c | 124.51$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Minnesota Twins | 31c | 122.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Detroit Tigers | 73c | 109.53$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Minnesota Twins | 42c | 96.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Detroit Tigers | 53c | 92.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Minnesota Twins | 23c | 86.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Minnesota Twins | 53c | 83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 82.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Detroit Tigers | 48c | 76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Detroit Tigers | 53c | 68.53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Detroit Tigers | 57c | 64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Detroit Tigers | 53c | 62.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Detroit Tigers | 69c | 55.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Detroit Tigers | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Detroit Tigers | 53c | 47.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 45.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Detroit Tigers | 45c | 37.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Minnesota Twins | 35c | 35.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…c570backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 32.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Detroit Tigers | 53c | 31.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 31.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Detroit Tigers | 53c | 22.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Detroit Tigers | 53c | 21.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 20.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 17.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit TigersMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 12.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.