MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4799ea25cdc78639953f2a99c6c896bbcec58a953cb970419a481053b39ece4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 19,133$10,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,278.09 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 10,696$5,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,384.92 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 9,148$4,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,809.66 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Under | 49c | 6,660$3,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,262.3 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee0b…e9f4backed Under | 59c | 3,700$2,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,195.61 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 42c | 3,013$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,751.23 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 1,971$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.22 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…184cbacked Over | 42c | 1,919$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.77 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 44c | 1,852$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.86 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 54c | 1,792$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.7 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5453…65cebacked Under | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 48c | 801.84$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.39 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 51c | 611.76$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.76 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 46c | 517.73$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.59 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 45c | 487.08$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.93 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 58c | 362.63$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.73 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 44c | 334.44$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.84 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7381…d95dbacked Under | 62c | 322.79$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…8956backed Over | 57c | 288.28$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.96 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 66c | 274.31$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.24 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…c53cbacked Over | 52c | 273.98$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.51 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 47c | 231.76$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.83 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…1173backed Under | 55c | 169.84$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.94 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 45c | 164.27$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 62c | 158.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 47c | 153.9$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.55 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 41c | 152.46$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 24c | 147.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 47c | 140.16$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 58c | 138$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 63c | 132.97$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 49c | 132.81$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Over | 51c | 118$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 53c | 113.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7886…ec60backed Under | 54c | 112.75$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 111 | 50.5%56 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 49c | 100.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 46c | 91.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 32c | 84.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33d2…9ac2backed Under | 49c | 79.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Over | 47c | 74.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 47c | 72.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Over | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe997…f92ebacked Over | 50c | 67.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 47c | 66.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 45c | 65.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 48c | 64.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 48c | 62.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 21c | 61.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 58c | 55.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 58c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…afddbacked Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 56c | 53.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 42c | 52.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95fa…bf35backed Under | 49c | 41.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Over | 47c | 38.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 53c | 38.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7891…c020backed Under | 57c | 32.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Over | 48c | 31.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…5d6cbacked Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Under | 53c | 29.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab56…e635backed Under | 54c | 20.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 58c | 20.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit TigersMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 12.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.