MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e465a7b787f7763e0e412b671cf26c9ca93e20708eea372030bf94b3e5e47fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 77c | 1,815$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.67 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…52b2backed Under | 23c | 1,799$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 37c | 1,297$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.62 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 63c | 839.41$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.58 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 73c | 580.91$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.35 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 23c | 496.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.31 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 32c | 375.21$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.17 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 64c | 371.83$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.18 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 17c | 272.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 68c | 208.16$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.76 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 77c | 178.44$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 78c | 148.93$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…8956backed Over | 78c | 106.13$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 33c | 78.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 31c | 77.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 28c | 65.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 30c | 58.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Under | 32c | 47.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 31c | 45.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Over | 66c | 43.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,167 | 49%572 W · 595 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 67c | 39.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 66c | 39.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7579…524abacked Under | 32c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Over | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 77c | 24.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Over | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 78c | 21.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 78c | 19.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…f0c5backed Over | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 94 | 73.4%69 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 76c | 15.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit TigersMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 12.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.