MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0425f273ae64f47e34798f8b036f6eddc40c56456c34b73998457ce4cae10917
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins | 33c | 30,861$10,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,805.47 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers | 68c | 12,242$8,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,357.57 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 11,912$7,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,859.82 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Detroit Tigers | 52c | 3,788$1,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,963.53 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Minnesota Twins | 32c | 2,063$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,402.5 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Detroit Tigers | 40c | 1,500$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.98 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 1,027$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.65 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Detroit Tigers | 69c | 740.27$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.34 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…9945backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 645.16$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.16 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Detroit Tigers | 20c | 585.07$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.01 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 454.47$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.12 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins | 69c | 417.05$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.02 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Detroit Tigers | 53c | 302.23$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.09 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Detroit Tigers | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Detroit Tigers | 69c | 299.38$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.45 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 28c | 253.86$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.78 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked Detroit Tigers | 72c | 253.86$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.78 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Detroit Tigers | 44c | 250.01$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Detroit Tigers | 49c | 222$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.78 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…1173backed Minnesota Twins | 33c | 204.69$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.72 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Detroit Tigers | 51c | 181.05$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…8956backed Detroit Tigers | 49c | 174$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…ba13backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 122.12$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Minnesota Twins | 31c | 118.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.87 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Detroit Tigers | 32c | 114.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Minnesota Twins | 49c | 103.63$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Detroit Tigers | 50c | 100.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Minnesota Twins | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 76.51$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Detroit Tigers | 71c | 75.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Minnesota Twins | 29c | 75.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Detroit Tigers | 68c | 70.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Detroit Tigers | 28c | 70.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Detroit Tigers | 69c | 51.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Detroit Tigers | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca78…fe5dbacked Minnesota Twins | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Detroit Tigers | 70c | 48.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Detroit Tigers | 70c | 46.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…afddbacked Minnesota Twins | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Minnesota Twins | 32c | 43.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7891…c020backed Minnesota Twins | 34c | 42.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Minnesota Twins | 32c | 40.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Minnesota Twins | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Detroit Tigers | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Detroit Tigers | 63c | 18.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Minnesota Twins | 71c | 15.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit TigersMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 12.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.