WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x616ef6537fbb944e2a4f6f195e41e385bd1bc4c0d95d6849ccc95d149f71b726
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Phoenix Mercuryof Golden State Valkyries, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4337…8882backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 6,912$3,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,870.92 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Golden State Valkyries | 56c | 3,036$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed Golden State Valkyries | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…9945backed Golden State Valkyries | 52c | 2,190$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.47 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 1,240$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.65 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…dd71backed Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 917.24$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506 | 92 | 51.1%47 W · 45 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 760.34$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.57 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury | 39c | 655.05$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.94 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0de…8048backed Golden State Valkyries | 52c | 577.81$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Phoenix Mercury | 57c | 527.15$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.15 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x987e…8d7abacked Golden State Valkyries | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Golden State Valkyries | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 229 | 67.7%155 W · 74 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Golden State Valkyries | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 350$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.47 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Golden State Valkyries | 56c | 312.5$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 294.07$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.06 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…87bdbacked Golden State Valkyries | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Golden State Valkyries | 55c | 214.6$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.03 | 252 | 46%116 W · 136 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd37…e117backed Golden State Valkyries | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Golden State Valkyries | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 157.93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.63 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Phoenix Mercury | 67c | 143.2$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 111.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Golden State Valkyries | 57c | 70.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Golden State Valkyries | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c9…bc74backed Golden State Valkyries | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Golden State Valkyries | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -11.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Phoenix Mercury | 41c | 49.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 349 | 18.3%64 W · 285 L | -49.5wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…5d6ebacked Golden State Valkyries | 66c | 45.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Golden State Valkyries | 37c | 41.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Phoenix Mercury | 42c | 41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Golden State Valkyries | 57c | 37.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Golden State Valkyries | 48c | 34.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32f1…c96ebacked Golden State Valkyries | 55c | 23.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 23.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Golden State Valkyries | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-6.5)this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State ValkyriesGolden State Valkyries won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5Over won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5Over won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.