WNBA · resolved market
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a479be612d937b3377df06fba47a2262d80e34d2ce4df84e0cede63b877bd9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24d4…4e1dbacked Over | 52c | 2,885$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.62 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 46c | 2,548$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.55 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…40d5backed Under | 49c | 2,441$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 48c | 1,748$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.9 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 1,192$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.09 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 47c | 1,133$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.48 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 1,024$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.87 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…9945backed Over | 51c | 981.12$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.12 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7e…6d00backed Under | 52c | 961.69$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…4b3cbacked Over | 69c | 655$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.05 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 66c | 610.54$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b5…2d74backed Over | 53c | 574.74$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.5 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Over | 74c | 509.85$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.33 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b43…0714backed Over | 52c | 451.92$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 52c | 444.33$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.28 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Under | 48c | 404.6$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.21 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 398.7$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.23 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1378…dbd2backed Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 39c | 371.97$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.36 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca2…088ebacked Over | 34c | 333$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.28 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2b…e5e7backed Over | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…a295backed Over | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 28c | 273.69$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.36 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 39c | 271.83$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.01 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -11.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x943b…e35ebacked Over | 40c | 244.97$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…ca37backed Over | 72c | 234$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…1cc3backed Over | 45c | 223.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.07 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 46c | 196.72$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 29c | 174.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…dac0backed Under | 50c | 149$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 42c | 138.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Under | 53c | 136.12$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…0eb4backed Under | 48c | 134.62$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed Over | 54c | 130.02$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.02 | 113 | 53.1%60 W · 53 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 30c | 125.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…5d6ebacked Over | 50c | 119.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.26 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3c…9320backed Over | 53c | 113.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 52c | 106.72$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 58c | 100.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d28…0d64backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Under | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Over | 37c | 99.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.29 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 58c | 92.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -11.1wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Over | 73c | 67.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 52c | 58.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…6047backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…ad0fbacked Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…3ca9backed Over | 52c | 56.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Under | 49c | 54.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 109 | 35.8%39 W · 70 L | -13.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Over | 54c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 48c | 49.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 45c | 45.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 51c | 43.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…4800backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a8…7df4backed Over | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…e8bcbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 45c | 35.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc059…a1edbacked Over | 53c | 33.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bad…ed33backed Under | 62c | 32.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 29.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…03e5backed Over | 66c | 28.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1d…a420backed Under | 49c | 25.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…252abacked Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…0e06backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 58c | 19.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x102a…9ee4backed Under | 67c | 18.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20dc…f266backed Under | 67c | 17.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State ValkyriesGolden State Valkyries won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5Over won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-6.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.