WNBA · resolved market
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3aaae0283854cc5eb0c841b8ff8739d3c1f1e9d854e99c2ca7ff0c229f6db5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 49c | 48,768$23,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,940.74 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 51c | 9,000$4,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,590 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Under | 51c | 8,435$4,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,301.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…ae5ebacked Under | 52c | 6,923$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Under | 51c | 6,366$3,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,246.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 50c | 6,186$3,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,101.09 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…0eb4backed Under | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 4,000$2,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,030 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x443b…e8bbbacked Under | 51c | 3,765$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d53…eb1abacked Over | 50c | 3,604$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,802.08 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaf…d959backed Over | 50c | 2,327$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 2,042$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.94 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 51c | 1,926$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.22 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Over | 49c | 1,771$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.22 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Under | 1c | 1,398$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea48…c596backed Under | 51c | 1,255$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.05 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…3d00backed Under | 51c | 1,178$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5b…5443backed Over | 51c | 980.59$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.59 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 51c | 977.36$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.45 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 934.69$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.94 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 51c | 743$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.93 | 361 | 54%195 W · 166 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0972…9d1ebacked Under | 51c | 631.37$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24d4…4e1dbacked Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e8…b283backed Under | 51c | 569.57$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.4 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…3de8backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…dac0backed Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b43…0714backed Over | 50c | 396.18$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…2d13backed Under | 51c | 391$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.41 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6d…65acbacked Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 49c | 243.07$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.11 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 36c | 233.52$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.92 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5184…d17abacked Under | 58c | 224.47$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.72 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd934…8caabacked Under | 47c | 214.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eab…7e13backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.53 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32f1…c96ebacked Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…40d5backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…b4b2backed Over | 49c | 168.37$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Under | 54c | 139.8$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0d…03c0backed Over | 55c | 108$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 69c | 106.89$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +38%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 33c | 99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -11.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…4db0backed Over | 51c | 84.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Under | 18c | 81.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 51c | 76.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 74c | 62.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…6f16backed Under | 61c | 60.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35c9…bc74backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…5d6ebacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…e8bcbacked Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Over | 66c | 47.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 50c | 45.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc94…a3b6backed Under | 51c | 35.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…b60ebacked Over | 49c | 31.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Under | 36c | 31.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 64 | 1.6%1 W · 63 L | -26.1wins | -0.41per pick | 42cpaid | -97.6%equal weight | 17-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…ae63backed Under | 51c | 21.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1d…a420backed Under | 51c | 20.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…e566backed Under | 53c | 20.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 49c | 20.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 449 | 15.6%70 W · 379 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State ValkyriesGolden State Valkyries won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5Over won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-6.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.