NBA · resolved market
Spread: Suns (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61a4f7cd1bc934fa5524f02ffd5fb8ce26f92cbfb7b29024711f2bb909d747a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Suns, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Suns | 50c | 18,000$9,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,000 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Pacers | 51c | 16,190$8,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,334.9 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Pacers | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Suns | 49c | 7,402$3,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,811.78 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Suns | 49c | 5,920$2,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,019.18 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Suns | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pacers | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…9297backed Pacers | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 169 | 42%71 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…34dbbacked Pacers | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Suns | 50c | 1,786$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.88 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Pacers | 50c | 802$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pacers | 50c | 802$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Suns | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Suns | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Suns | 52c | 140$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Suns | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed Suns | 49c | 84.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 145 | 62.8%91 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Suns | 50c | 68.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Suns | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 234 | 45.7%107 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pacers | 48c | 48.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Suns | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Pacers | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Suns (-3.5)this page
- Pacers vs. SunsSuns won
- Pacers vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Pacers vs. Suns: O/U 229.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Suns: O/U 230.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Suns: O/U 231.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Suns: O/U 232.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Suns: O/U 233.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Suns: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Suns (-4.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-5.5)Suns won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.