Tennis · resolved market
European Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Yannick Hanfmann
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61e96f337cf3429a9de572e224eacd0fedf815996bc0a675bff1e014d0298ab3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Musettiof Musetti, Hanfmann
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Musetti | 77c | 13,018$10,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,979.75 | 1,193 | 48.9%583 W · 610 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Hanfmann | 30c | 7,877$2,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,363.1 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Musetti | 70c | 7,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Hanfmann | 30c | 4,011$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.76 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Musetti | 71c | 3,020$2,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.71 | 189 | 33.9%64 W · 125 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Hanfmann | 29c | 3,000$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hanfmann | 29c | 2,624$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.78 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Hanfmann | 9c | 2,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…2ef0backed Musetti | 69c | 1,445$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.53 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Musetti | 70c | 1,327$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.96 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Hanfmann | 30c | 1,254$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.63 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Hanfmann | 32c | 1,250$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Musetti | 70c | 1,001$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.64 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Musetti | 68c | 898.4$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.03 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3b99backed Hanfmann | 32c | 875.13$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.58 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Hanfmann | 30c | 800$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Musetti | 70c | 667.14$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.14 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Hanfmann | 22c | 610$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.1 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Hanfmann | 30c | 485$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.5 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Musetti | 66c | 383$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.01 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Hanfmann | 33c | 375$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.13 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…bc46backed Hanfmann | 30c | 356.06$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.42 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Hanfmann | 30c | 300$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Hanfmann | 30c | 288.91$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.42 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Hanfmann | 30c | 284.67$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hanfmann | 29c | 271.52$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Hanfmann | 19c | 253.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…1485backed Hanfmann | 32c | 253.09$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Hanfmann | 22c | 231.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Musetti | 71c | 184$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Hanfmann | 29c | 178.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Musetti | 71c | 139.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Hanfmann | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Hanfmann | 20c | 102.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Hanfmann | 31c | 95.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Hanfmann | 27c | 86.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Musetti | 71c | 70.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…be63backed Musetti | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Musetti | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Musetti | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Musetti | 71c | 58.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Musetti | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 236 | 70.8%167 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Hanfmann | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Hanfmann | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Musetti | 68c | 48.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Hanfmann | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…52f7backed Musetti | 72c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba4f…7ecebacked Musetti | 71c | 16.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.