MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6205da2715d6b8b4fe3b5a1f11a09ee62dd64b1090961bdea40027698274abc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 2,510$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.67 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3572…9d39backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 1,505$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.3 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 1,359$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.71 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 1,227$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.82 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 46c | 1,000$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.46 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 587.74$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.05 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 586.5$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.1 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 375$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.53 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 369.97$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.43 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 313.11$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.85 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 298.26$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.59 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…b81bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 253.92$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.95 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 179$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.17 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 134.18$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 120.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…0675backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 118.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 109.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 98.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98fc…ecf9backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 87.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 87.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 85.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 70.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461c…f74bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…6124backed Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -38%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 48.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 55c | 20.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 17.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia PhilliesLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.