MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe526ccafa58307c969cc37281490cb224936ed2e63a475bc565d7965bc01591d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x300b…f636backed No | 54c | 2,750$1,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,485 | 233 | 57.9%135 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 46c | 2,367$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.95 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 46c | 1,910$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.44 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…b35cbacked No | 14c | 1,843$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 67c | 1,228$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.62 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae6e…5c65backed Yes | 47c | 782.12$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.53 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed No | 29c | 565.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.66 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed No | 54c | 412.06$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.51 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…c736backed No | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 179 | 51.4%92 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 45c | 368.55$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.7 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 52c | 363.54$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.47 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 46c | 354.98$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.39 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 48c | 294.61$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.52 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Yes | 48c | 239.17$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.37 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed No | 53c | 235.7$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 46c | 234.17$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.45 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 17c | 221.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc7…7f02backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed No | 53c | 188$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…9351backed No | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaea5…26e3backed No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed No | 54c | 153.7$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 185 | 56.2%104 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 47c | 123.75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 47c | 122.83$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 47c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 50c | 109.82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked No | 53c | 95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…b524backed No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 46c | 81.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked No | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 222 | 57.7%128 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed No | 53c | 70.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -59%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 20c | 53.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed No | 54c | 42.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…1fafbacked No | 54c | 38.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7884…1fb0backed No | 54c | 37.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1483…48fabacked No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…9b35backed No | 54c | 37.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 370 | 48.9%181 W · 189 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed No | 49c | 27.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…d888backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…1c01backed No | 54c | 20.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…4421backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Philliesthis page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia PhilliesLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.