Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Uspenivka by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x621c5b98c500aed261c73924a6a2ea747266415eedf11e9e443604e3d324951d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 19c | 7,236$1,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,388.47 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 12c | 6,165$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.99 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 15c | 6,101$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.45 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 15c | 4,292$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.67 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 16c | 3,900$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.99 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 16c | 2,976$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dda…649cbacked Yes | 19c | 2,681$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.66 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…4ca0backed Yes | 8c | 1,642$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 15c | 1,601$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.15 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf72d…9bd8backed Yes | 14c | 1,400$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…e26cbacked Yes | 40c | 1,235$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88fd…750ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,013$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 816$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.02 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 16c | 764.54$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.66 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 601.18$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.46 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…c600backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 14c | 573.41$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.27 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 12c | 534.8$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…2e0fbacked Yes | 13c | 489$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 15c | 443.76$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.86 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 14c | 404.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…50bcbacked No | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c20…6291backed No | 80c | 347.51$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee42…86d2backed Yes | 23c | 340.34$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 237.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…59f7backed Yes | 17c | 210$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d29…481dbacked Yes | 19c | 207.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 186.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306c…3dbabacked Yes | 16c | 131.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e2…42d6backed Yes | 21c | 111.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b05…ccccbacked Yes | 16c | 100.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc20e…97a7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf2…3981backed Yes | 13c | 94.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 79.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed Yes | 21c | 78.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…ca8dbacked No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…5203backed Yes | 19c | 59.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…126dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1777…d59cbacked Yes | 25c | 46.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…f800backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 70c | 29.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb3…493cbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Uspenivka by October 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Uspenivka by November 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.