Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Uspenivka by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa559347a8eccf6f3d07d7e5b5b749a0b677acc066f4101037aa53b880d1598ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 11c | 5,411$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.57 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…da79backed No | 12c | 4,650$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.86 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 67c | 4,185$2,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.94 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 28c | 3,969$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.72 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed No | 33c | 3,531$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.23 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…c877backed No | 16c | 3,095$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 21c | 2,800$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.99 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…5d62backed Yes | 66c | 2,109$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.41 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 32c | 1,935$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.56 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 19c | 1,759$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.04 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 13c | 1,645$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.08 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 70c | 1,454$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.39 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…5839backed Yes | 71c | 1,415$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.88 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked No | 10c | 1,134$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.8 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed No | 22c | 1,110$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.42 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…eec6backed No | 32c | 999.99$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 64c | 873.25$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.37 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed No | 29c | 868.25$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.47 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +6.8wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 29c | 800$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 33c | 654.23$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.17 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…bac0backed No | 17c | 609.89$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed No | 12c | 600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 78c | 584.66$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.47 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked No | 12c | 510.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 69c | 509.19$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 67c | 499.99$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 34c | 499.98$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.99 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf981…1d5fbacked Yes | 66c | 433.5$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…3ce5backed No | 19c | 424.1$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…3158backed No | 11c | 416.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88fd…750ebacked Yes | 63c | 400$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…afe2backed No | 35c | 343.66$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.11 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc236…73e5backed Yes | 80c | 340.68$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 67cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22d7…84e0backed No | 15c | 337.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x342e…7e88backed Yes | 76c | 322$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…5a85backed No | 9c | 321.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…e65cbacked No | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…919cbacked No | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f65…9ad1backed No | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 21c | 299.95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…c2c4backed No | 12c | 293.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 20c | 276.68$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f3…28d1backed No | 10c | 274.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 77c | 261.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…59f7backed Yes | 67c | 250$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3075…b14cbacked No | 14c | 248.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69eb…1f04backed Yes | 68c | 246.04$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.03 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 7c | 245$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21da…3ce1backed No | 21c | 234.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 65c | 206.41$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.19 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7aef…06f8backed No | 37c | 205.26$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dd…f76dbacked Yes | 67c | 193$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 28c | 160$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 18c | 160$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed No | 20c | 152.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 15c | 151.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa960…4a45backed No | 13c | 148.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed No | 19c | 147.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa22…69a6backed Yes | 70c | 142.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f37…65a5backed Yes | 77c | 133.46$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed No | 19c | 131.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 66c | 126.43$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fa…a1ddbacked Yes | 65c | 126$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +53%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 26c | 115.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…9357backed Yes | 72c | 114.52$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x896f…b561backed Yes | 70c | 114.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180b…d1febacked Yes | 66c | 112.01$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ef…0b93backed No | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9595…c580backed Yes | 72c | 100.63$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdec…532cbacked Yes | 70c | 98.37$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306c…3dbabacked Yes | 69c | 90.58$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b6…4068backed No | 18c | 85.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 75.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f4…4e98backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78da…e609backed No | 15c | 73.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…954cbacked Yes | 75c | 70.26$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…126dbacked Yes | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c6d9backed Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6124…94f1backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6a…2dd7backed Yes | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…ad2abacked No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d9…8483backed No | 37c | 57.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…617abacked Yes | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd8…d8f0backed No | 34c | 56.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 32c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 21c | 47.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 66c | 43.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…2780backed Yes | 62c | 41.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a4…df53backed Yes | 71c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa9…22ebbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed Yes | 74c | 35.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…bf4dbacked Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe082…4e4cbacked Yes | 73c | 29.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4477…f52ebacked Yes | 76c | 27.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…d8a2backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Uspenivka by November 30?this page
- Will Russia capture Uspenivka by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.