Serie A · resolved market
Will Bologna vs. Genoa end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x621d947848e8afa9638cc4955f00119c2845a439727fae2ef3a6a8e7d48da8a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 11c | 3,795$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,384.68 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 33c | 2,493$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.95 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 56c | 840$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.68 | 200 | 33%66 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 479.7$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.71 | 317 | 38.8%123 W · 194 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…ed44backed Yes | 47c | 345$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 66c | 334.7$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 66c | 304$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.36 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 52c | 282.92$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.29 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 37c | 133.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.83 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -14.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed No | 12c | 120.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.62 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d1…817ebacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +358.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 58c | 99.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…aafdbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 66c | 58.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 225 | 51.6%116 W · 109 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5a2bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb19…21e4backed Yes | 50c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…ca96backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 72c | 17.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed No | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…0b63backed No | 72c | 13.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bologna vs. Genoa end in a draw?this page
- Will Bologna win on 2025-09-20?Yes won
- Will Genoa win on 2025-09-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.