Serie A · resolved market
Will Bologna win on 2025-09-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbde8f9bd8554f2eaf500cc87084c431f6327bf2e9848f7eaba7c6c99de40e81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $268,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $273,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $268,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked No | 53c | 200,000$106,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106,000 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2635…5408backed Yes | 47c | 194,086$91,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102,865.53 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 52c | 40,000$20,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,199.99 | 109 | 52.3%57 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 53c | 12,366$6,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,588.37 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -8.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed No | 48c | 12,000$5,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,760 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 49c | 11,948$5,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,837.04 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 46c | 8,000$3,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,320 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 48c | 7,500$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 210 | 58.6%123 W · 87 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 47c | 6,127$2,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,268.31 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 48c | 5,126$2,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,461.45 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed Yes | 49c | 2,000$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.41 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…1461backed No | 54c | 1,500$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 39c | 1,462$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.8 | 200 | 33%66 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 48c | 1,360$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 48c | 1,266$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.68 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed No | 49c | 1,182$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.03 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 50c | 1,026$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.84 | 285 | 56.1%160 W · 125 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 50c | 934.15$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.08 | 225 | 51.6%116 W · 109 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 45c | 882.69$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.7 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 61c | 651.43$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.44 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 50c | 608.34$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.08 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Yes | 49c | 588.28$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.28 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8d…8189backed No | 48c | 588.1$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 48c | 486.95$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.61 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 48c | 479.7$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.15 | 317 | 38.8%123 W · 194 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked No | 50c | 461.37$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.95 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 32c | 461.3$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.32 | 117 | 72.6%85 W · 32 L | +28.2wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 46c | 435.35$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.35 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 58c | 379.98$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.93 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 43c | 376$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.84 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -14.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9920…8f8ebacked Yes | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…3a1bbacked Yes | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…002bbacked No | 48c | 297.92$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6324…95b9backed Yes | 53c | 282.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.75 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 42c | 238.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.67 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 50c | 216.08$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.19 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 49c | 171.42$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.42 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 49c | 168.81$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.26 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Yes | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +42%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Yes | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed No | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 74c | 113$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.59 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 49c | 112.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…4345backed No | 48c | 110.58$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41e3…1962backed Yes | 54c | 100.14$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…5bc3backed Yes | 53c | 78.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1d…e338backed Yes | 42c | 71.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…7edabacked No | 56c | 65.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Yes | 49c | 58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 47c | 57.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…3546backed Yes | 53c | 50.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Yes | 43c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…7293backed No | 48c | 40.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Yes | 52c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…31a3backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd83b…4236backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 47c | 31.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1396…a252backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x484f…28cbbacked No | 49c | 28.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…2f32backed Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bologna win on 2025-09-20?this page
- Will Bologna vs. Genoa end in a draw?No won
- Will Genoa win on 2025-09-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.