Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6287668c17850eb9215be76a06758826a7f04c9c5e016c8f52086ec2d8341ba0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Team Tidebound, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f76…3e05backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 25,920$13,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,939.3 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed Team Tidebound | 54c | 8,991$4,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,855.09 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Tidebound | 36c | 5,192$1,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,852.71 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Tidebound | 37c | 4,372$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615.38 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Team Tidebound | 40c | 2,811$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.76 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…932fbacked Team Tidebound | 54c | 2,410$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…de25backed Natus Vincere | 71c | 2,000$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 1,750$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.5 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Team Tidebound | 36c | 1,389$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2fe9backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 1,372$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.56 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Tidebound | 57c | 1,300$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.52 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Team Tidebound | 46c | 1,180$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.04 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed Team Tidebound | 1c | 1,160$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked Team Tidebound | 46c | 1,114$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Team Tidebound | 36c | 1,080$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.67 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Team Tidebound | 53c | 1,004$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.18 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Team Tidebound | 45c | 973.27$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.34 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Natus Vincere | 78c | 845.62$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.25 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe48…5895backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 836.59$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.28 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Team Tidebound | 46c | 805.27$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.37 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da2…8c2bbacked Natus Vincere | 72c | 760$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.88 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Team Tidebound | 23c | 700$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Team Tidebound | 36c | 628.18$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.58 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Team Tidebound | 49c | 512.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a9…c1d3backed Natus Vincere | 77c | 500$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 425$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.35 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Natus Vincere | 72c | 406.31$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.77 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Team Tidebound | 28c | 395.38$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.2 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 393.02$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.02 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Natus Vincere | 71c | 351.61$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.97 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd5…81b0backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 349.33$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.13 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…8d6fbacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 314.42$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1318…0af2backed Team Tidebound | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Team Tidebound | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Team Tidebound | 47c | 242.55$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 216.94$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.89 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8e…5ad4backed Team Tidebound | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…3d14backed Team Tidebound | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Team Tidebound | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…9ea9backed Team Tidebound | 39c | 154.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…c03abacked Team Tidebound | 36c | 151.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…56c0backed Team Tidebound | 34c | 101.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fac…bdd8backed Team Tidebound | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 134 | 56%75 W · 59 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 99.53$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Tidebound | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ad…79a8backed Team Tidebound | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x173c…f3cdbacked Team Tidebound | 36c | 80.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Natus Vincere | 61c | 79.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fb…793ebacked Natus Vincere | 70c | 71.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa17f…19c5backed Team Tidebound | 37c | 70.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…9b9cbacked Natus Vincere | 75c | 68.71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…74c9backed Team Tidebound | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3099…d252backed Natus Vincere | 62c | 54.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 50.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 80 | 66.3%53 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb876…ae6ebacked Natus Vincere | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked Team Tidebound | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…8ca1backed Team Tidebound | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e8…7e1ebacked Natus Vincere | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…a48cbacked Natus Vincere | 65c | 23.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…d8b7backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 14.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Natus Vincere (BO3)Natus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.