Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5384b05d2c9a08f44d3ae7e293c77045ce1611406c3a332d8bfeac075a1f30e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Team Tidebound, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Tidebound | 45c | 5,625$2,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,523.62 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…932fbacked Natus Vincere | 56c | 3,582$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,582.21 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…3934backed Team Tidebound | 47c | 2,995$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,407.52 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Team Tidebound | 44c | 2,815$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.64 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 47c | 2,112$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.49 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Tidebound | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.99 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed Natus Vincere | 71c | 1,900$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.5 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 1,807$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.27 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd5…81b0backed Team Tidebound | 23c | 1,531$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 1,500$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Team Tidebound | 48c | 1,477$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.3 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 1,186$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.41 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…d804backed Team Tidebound | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Tidebound | 62c | 999.99$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…3f01backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 903.64$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.64 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec61…4a2ebacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 808.93$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.22 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3a…0338backed Natus Vincere | 58c | 793.57$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.5 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Team Tidebound | 44c | 791.67$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.02 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 790$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Natus Vincere | 44c | 782.75$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.57 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8e…5ad4backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 673.28$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.19 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 539.05$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.92 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Team Tidebound | 52c | 522.57$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…940abacked Natus Vincere | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Team Tidebound | 64c | 467.66$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.73 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc9…7db1backed Team Tidebound | 49c | 444.04$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 417$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.84 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 400$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Team Tidebound | 51c | 338.11$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.95 | 106 | 61.3%65 W · 41 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Natus Vincere | 45c | 250$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.5 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36a9…c1d3backed Natus Vincere | 72c | 247.85$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.56 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1318…0af2backed Team Tidebound | 48c | 226.48$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.7 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…c498backed Team Tidebound | 27c | 222.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a5…a903backed Team Tidebound | 52c | 220$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Team Tidebound | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a9…3f60backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 193.37$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.82 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…68b5backed Team Tidebound | 51c | 173.5$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Team Tidebound | 11c | 170$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 240 | 26.7%64 W · 176 L | -30.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…b94cbacked Team Tidebound | 65c | 141.54$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Team Tidebound | 49c | 139.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 138$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 127.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.16 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…5d10backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 126.34$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.13 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed Natus Vincere | 58c | 118.45$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…9ea9backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…c03abacked Team Tidebound | 49c | 104.49$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…56c0backed Team Tidebound | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…3fccbacked Natus Vincere | 57c | 91.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b0…b21dbacked Natus Vincere | 55c | 83.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Team Tidebound | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6450…9547backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec41…1134backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa17f…19c5backed Team Tidebound | 49c | 67.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e06…5a9bbacked Team Tidebound | 50c | 65.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 59.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Team Tidebound | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Tidebound | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3099…d252backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 49.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62b7…f260backed Team Tidebound | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…8ca1backed Team Tidebound | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked Team Tidebound | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 236 | 50.4%119 W · 117 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e8…7e1ebacked Natus Vincere | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked Team Tidebound | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…443bbacked Team Tidebound | 50c | 30.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173c…f3cdbacked Team Tidebound | 48c | 30.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…db07backed Natus Vincere | 62c | 29.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5d…99ebbacked Team Tidebound | 53c | 27.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 146 | 68.5%100 W · 46 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…fc01backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 20.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Natus Vincere (BO3)Natus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.