Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $2.00 January 5-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x629156cbba3cd1fb075ce3fc9ff9b97f21364a4d802c9f65169b69ab3f1b6e55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $193,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $186,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70ed…10b4backed Yes | 21c | 6,450$1,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,324.26 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 16c | 5,762$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.11 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed Yes | 20c | 5,640$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.17 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 20c | 2,436$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.36 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…3086backed Yes | 24c | 2,075$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Yes | 34c | 1,817$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af5…42cebacked No | 80c | 1,714$1,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.6 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +5.6wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…96c0backed Yes | 25c | 1,358$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.14 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 1,052$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.42 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 850.03$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.91 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 838.69$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 9c | 755.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Yes | 19c | 600$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 433.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 22c | 350$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…7ad5backed Yes | 31c | 322.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 302.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 9c | 300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 85 | 5.9%5 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 9c | 300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 63 | 6.3%4 W · 59 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…f6a6backed Yes | 25c | 266.58$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0127…242cbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 79c | 195.46$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d9…b7c0backed Yes | 8c | 148.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd22d…7336backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 78c | 106.02$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 79c | 76.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -8.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2d…1dc7backed Yes | 14c | 75.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea66…258bbacked No | 72c | 43.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 January 5-11?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.80 January 5-11?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.90 January 5-11?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.20 January 5-11?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.30 January 5-11?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 January 5-11?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.50 January 5-11?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 January 5-11?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.70 January 5-11?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 January 5-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.