Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62b13dd34050b63b401e1bbd0bc96defc57425bc97cc0ddbf4fbc03091e430af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 673.61$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.1 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed Yes | 72c | 530.85$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.77 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 71c | 519.05$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.23 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 5c | 455.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 423.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 27c | 331.95$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.37 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 57c | 313.2$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.72 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 75c | 274.4$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.56 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 48c | 206.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 61c | 196.46$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 20c | 189.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 11c | 188.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 173.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 162.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 10c | 159.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 13c | 158.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 38c | 150.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 75c | 150$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b0…155bbacked Yes | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 37c | 148$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.74 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 145.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.14 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 30c | 145.55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.18 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 65c | 139.73$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 71c | 130$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 10c | 121.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 50c | 117.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 53c | 111.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.76 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…b9a9backed Yes | 78c | 104.13$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 103.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 11c | 101.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 20c | 92.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 11c | 91.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…a57ebacked No | 62c | 88.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…7bc3backed Yes | 63c | 83.26$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 48c | 78.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 49c | 76.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 35c | 72.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 29c | 67.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 28c | 60.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 58.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked Yes | 49c | 57.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 52c | 51.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 20c | 51.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…4432backed Yes | 30c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 41c | 46.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0e…8337backed Yes | 68c | 44.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…280bbacked No | 32c | 39.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 39c | 37.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 66c | 33.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 60c | 29.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 75c | 27.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 75c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 44c | 25.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe43a…61cbbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617c…a1b6backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.