Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88b3f6518cab6c33df13c2ed4a4e20ba7c1913193225196258d15ac237dbc778
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 846.98$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.05 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 324$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 262.44$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked No | 73c | 249.12$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 15c | 222.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed Yes | 10c | 207.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 171.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 79c | 126.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 73c | 125$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 114.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 109.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 107.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 107.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 26c | 106.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 16c | 104.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 104.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 30c | 99.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 26c | 90.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 31c | 84.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…f375backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 76.73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 15c | 70.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 32c | 64.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 32c | 62.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes | 31c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e17…8bd7backed Yes | 27c | 59.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 71c | 58.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 72c | 55.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…978bbacked Yes | 33c | 53.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 74c | 51.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 41.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 31c | 38.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…0408backed Yes | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed Yes | 31c | 34.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 72c | 33.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 69c | 31.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 74c | 31.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9575backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 30.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 70c | 25.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 25.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37c…3a91backed No | 74c | 25.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 23.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 73c | 23.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb076…16e8backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 72c | 13.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed No | 72c | 13.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.