Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dded2079a772cdf1cc961501d5cee929f03906c6b0516693cc2a83be74cc1f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 64c | 776.52$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.43 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed Yes | 74c | 450.83$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.87 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 433$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.48 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 33c | 381.96$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.76 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 64c | 378.96$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.15 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 76c | 349.48$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.75 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 3c | 349.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.26 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 3c | 331.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.98 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 54c | 327.18$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.91 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 5c | 318$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.34 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 60c | 287.58$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.71 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 45c | 278.63$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.26 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 272.16$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.84 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked No | 55c | 262.19$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.14 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 37c | 258.67$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.79 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 28c | 248.07$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 34c | 230.01$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 229.96$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.99 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 6c | 220.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.4 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 54c | 205.49$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.49 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 45c | 192.66$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed No | 21c | 190.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 23c | 162.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.82 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 148.12$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.29 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 145.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 145$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.87 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 12c | 143.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…b9a9backed Yes | 76c | 141.39$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes | 26c | 133.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.49 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 43c | 117.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 39c | 109.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 43c | 103.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 28c | 103.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked No | 10c | 100.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 30c | 84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.77 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed No | 13c | 83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 46c | 80.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked No | 74c | 79.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 28c | 72.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 66c | 70.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9953…9ef2backed Yes | 22c | 68.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…7bc3backed Yes | 30c | 67.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 33c | 62.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 45c | 60.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 70c | 59.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…ff17backed Yes | 29c | 59.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…15cebacked No | 77c | 51.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 31c | 45.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 67c | 44.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 79c | 44.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 43.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…0c7ebacked No | 69c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 65c | 30.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 78c | 27.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8b…31d0backed Yes | 58c | 25.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 75c | 22.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 80c | 21.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 50c | 20.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6390…9bf0backed No | 77c | 14.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.