Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb601cbbb0db668119e950d9bd2b7477f179e4aab476be35aef16dd80a06d99a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 27c | 833.61$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.16 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed Yes | 25c | 390.71$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.19 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 23c | 325$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.23 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 324$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 30c | 318.8$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.82 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 70c | 298.62$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.62 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 273.85$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 22c | 227.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 69c | 225.92$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.84 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 207.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…7bc3backed Yes | 20c | 200.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0e…8337backed Yes | 18c | 193.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 186.34$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked Yes | 26c | 170$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 167.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 75c | 152.62$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 133.07$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 129.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 77c | 129.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 128.52$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 80c | 128.17$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 36c | 126.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 20c | 123.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 26c | 122.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 119.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 116.63$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5938…7788backed Yes | 10c | 115$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 32c | 114.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 17c | 109.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 77c | 105$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 29c | 96.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 95.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed Yes | 16c | 95.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 64c | 92.85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 33c | 90.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 77.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 69c | 72.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes | 37c | 69.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 79c | 61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 19c | 60.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 19c | 60.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 36c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 69c | 57.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 30c | 54.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed Yes | 35c | 54.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 73c | 54.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 22c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 75c | 51.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 34c | 50.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 35c | 48.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 27c | 46.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 71c | 43.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 41.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked No | 74c | 40.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 80c | 35.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 73c | 25.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 76c | 25.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 79c | 23.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…1533backed No | 69c | 20.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa6…49a1backed No | 67c | 20.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 77c | 19.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 18.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 17.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 15.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 76c | 15.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.