MLB · resolved market
Yankees vs. Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x632a94f5cde351d7563ed77410995c7fd8801309c10e5ee90e9ea043ab3da85c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oriolesof Yankees, Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Yankees | 41c | 36,829$14,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,994.28 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Orioles | 60c | 16,786$10,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,748.01 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Orioles | 55c | 9,501$5,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,259.02 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Orioles | 47c | 4,190$1,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,228.57 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Orioles | 44c | 3,167$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,766.83 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Orioles | 44c | 2,522$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.87 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Yankees | 56c | 1,812$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.11 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…0020backed Orioles | 50c | 1,544$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yankees | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yankees | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Orioles | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Yankees | 13c | 905.06$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.21 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Yankees | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yankees | 27c | 538.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.64 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yankees | 53c | 499.61$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.1 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Orioles | 64c | 351.99$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.64 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Orioles | 47c | 319.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.6 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Orioles | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Orioles | 53c | 277.74$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.54 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yankees | 8c | 241.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Orioles | 44c | 212.08$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.76 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Yankees | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yankees | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yankees | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Orioles | 47c | 106.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Orioles | 53c | 104.15$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Orioles | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Yankees | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc62b…de3cbacked Yankees | 19c | 93.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ec…01b6backed Yankees | 56c | 91.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked Orioles | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Yankees | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…009fbacked Yankees | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Orioles | 46c | 53.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Orioles | 66c | 48.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc14…39ccbacked Yankees | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yankees | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Yankees | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Yankees | 54c | 28.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Yankees | 54c | 18.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Orioles | 55c | 18.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.