CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Favbet vs illwill (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x633a80b5cd39852f7b0003ce781e9ec97ad8e5c7fa8cf1522f1571a6df29b2f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- illwillof Favbet, illwill
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked illwill | 47c | 1,863$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.51 | 3,256 | 50.3%1,637 W · 1,619 L | +97.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Favbet | 52c | 1,220$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.06 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Favbet | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed illwill | 62c | 343.4$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.49 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -10.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Favbet | 49c | 312.87$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.85 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Favbet | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 203 | 62.6%127 W · 76 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…a69abacked illwill | 50c | 195.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.62 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c89…2db9backed Favbet | 48c | 163.17$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Favbet | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 608 | 53.3%324 W · 284 L | +20.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc5…d36ebacked Favbet | 46c | 139.13$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -27%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Favbet | 50c | 128$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 482 | 42.1%203 W · 279 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a750backed illwill | 33c | 111.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.7 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b8…d47dbacked illwill | 51c | 98.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 608 | 57.2%348 W · 260 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…0126backed Favbet | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed illwill | 58c | 86.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…d72dbacked illwill | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…9055backed illwill | 75c | 58.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 41 | 85.4%35 W · 6 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Favbet | 41c | 54.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked Favbet | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 660 | 34.1%225 W · 435 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aee…51a8backed illwill | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd2…36bcbacked illwill | 76c | 47.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f1…7a59backed illwill | 53c | 44.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 184 | 43.5%80 W · 104 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba4c…d823backed Favbet | 28c | 42.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked illwill | 61c | 40.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed Favbet | 26c | 39.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 291 | 53.6%156 W · 135 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7129…4517backed illwill | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,069 | 37.8%404 W · 665 L | +35.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee1…377abacked Favbet | 63c | 33.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7172…4cf3backed illwill | 53c | 33.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked illwill | 67c | 31.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 7,892 | 50.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L | +182.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd395…3731backed Favbet | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4b…038abacked Favbet | 65c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62a1…978abacked illwill | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -62%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…de7cbacked illwill | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe23…a8b5backed illwill | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed Favbet | 48c | 26.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 229 | 42.8%98 W · 131 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd345…3eb8backed illwill | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked illwill | 52c | 24.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x628e…1d80backed illwill | 53c | 24.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…b410backed illwill | 69c | 18.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…8f40backed illwill | 64c | 17.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.