TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfba0…a750

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
36
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: NBA, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 54 out of 100; worst Tweets at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST2045%9 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group Abacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.75
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group Abacked TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.33
Counter-Strike: Fingers Crossed vs AaB esport (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stagebacked Fingers Crossed · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$33.03
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs los kogutos (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #14 Group Stagebacked Johnny Speeds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$13.89
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - European Pro League Series 4 Playoffsbacked ex-RUBY · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+217.7%+$120.67
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs Acend (BO3) - European Pro League Series 4 Group Bbacked MASONIC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+244.8%+$37.55
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs FOLHA AMARELA (BO3) - CCT South America Series #7 Playoffsbacked FOLHA AMARELA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$121.78
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffsbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+66.7%+$18.68
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffsbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$29.9
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - CCT South America Series #7 Playoffsbacked Bounty Hunters Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$174
Counter-Strike: Favbet vs illwill (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stagebacked illwill · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+202.3%+$74.7
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffsbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+352.2%+$70.43
Counter-Strike: Sangal vs Favbet (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #13 Group Stagebacked Favbet · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$33.25
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Closed Qualifier Playoffsbacked EYEBALLERS · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+51.8%+$20.73
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Closed Qualifier Playoffsbacked EYEBALLERS · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+35.4%+$8.4
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs naocopulas (BO3) - Circuit X Betboom Redemption Curitiba Group Abacked naocopulas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$34.2
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs K27 (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Closed Qualifier Playoffsbacked 9INE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+75.4%+$33.45
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Sangal (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Closed Qualifier Playoffsbacked Sangal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$93.49
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs los kogutos (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #14 Play-In Group Cbacked los kogutos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+100.2%+$33.13
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs ALLINNERS (BO3) - European Pro League Series 4 Group Abacked ALLINNERS · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$125
All 20 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 22, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cavaliers vs. Hornetsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+75%+$153.21
Lakers vs. Nuggetsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+75.4%+$75.44
All 2 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jan 22, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick77cpaid+30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Trace Esports vs Wolves Esports (BO3)backed Wolves Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+28.2%+$4.4
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Team Secret (BO3)backed Nongshim RedForce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+33.3%+$5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.28
Will the US strike Iran next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 5th Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$47
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$15.98
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.