Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x639933614e9ca16c5ac5c12089ab47b8f2cb1cc4a2c3aa4912ae37e69c7527a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 1,173$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked No | 73c | 678.49$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.25 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 63c | 362.35$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.52 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 319.37$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.92 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 254.37$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 60c | 251$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 218.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 215.12$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 64c | 210.71$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.05 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 199.75$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 181.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e12…354cbacked Yes | 8c | 175$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…3dd8backed Yes | 59c | 170.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 144.83$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 21c | 132.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 30c | 131.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 77c | 126.58$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 124.89$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 36c | 100.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 38c | 100.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 26c | 99.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 83.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 82.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 76.41$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 34c | 76.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 73.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 36c | 66.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 67c | 61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 47c | 57.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 57.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 34c | 54.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 35c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae8…6012backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e33…6e0cbacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 34.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 70c | 34.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 57c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 39c | 27.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 47c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 63c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b4…85d9backed No | 67c | 25.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 63c | 25.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 46c | 24.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.