Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe593f05dac3bf0b964fe77e67d7ba2ee3ab7a9f17c14ca41f3499e2655b1c3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 39c | 2,475$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.53 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 60c | 2,416$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.85 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 10c | 1,952$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.37 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…1b4fbacked Yes | 3c | 430.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 67 | 1.5%1 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 5c | 390.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 37c | 376$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.46 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 46c | 352.27$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.03 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…07cdbacked Yes | 40c | 350.28$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.72 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 331.93$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.1 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 9c | 315.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 300$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…3dd8backed Yes | 36c | 278.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 53c | 219.18$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.17 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 48c | 214.81$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 64c | 213.3$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.86 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 9c | 189.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 175.42$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 8c | 167.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 54c | 166.74$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.97 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 48c | 154.72$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.47 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 151.15$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 7c | 149.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 57c | 139.92$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 40c | 138.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 135$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 38c | 130$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a95…2b65backed No | 77c | 114.35$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 106.4$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 23c | 104.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 10c | 103.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x040a…118dbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 53c | 94.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 13c | 86.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 75.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 16c | 70.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 27c | 59.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 59c | 52.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 50c | 50.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 39c | 41.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 41.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 33c | 41.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 54c | 40.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 70c | 37.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 53c | 37.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 49c | 36.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 39c | 36.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3614…2397backed No | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 40c | 35.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 49c | 35.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 34.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 47c | 34.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 57c | 33.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae09…60fbbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 50c | 29.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 53c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 57c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 45c | 26.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 45c | 26.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 47c | 24.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 55c | 23.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 51c | 22.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 80c | 16.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.