Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6418c86ba09b0f0dbe27b2e49cdacc3638a37af7af444f64e5b51b77dd9e6463
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 40c | 1,335$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.89 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed No | 22c | 769.13$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.18 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 60c | 666.67$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.67 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 35c | 436.25$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.7 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 31c | 432.21$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.47 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 300.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 51c | 249.37$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.81 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 17c | 224$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked No | 57c | 211.1$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.03 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 56c | 160$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.85 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 156.46$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.19 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 41c | 145.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 49c | 122.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 45c | 120.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 41c | 109.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 46c | 108.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 51c | 104.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 100.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 94.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 43c | 90$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 24c | 89.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 13c | 86.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 44c | 85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 35c | 77.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed No | 54c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 44c | 73.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 77c | 64.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 80c | 62.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…50b7backed Yes | 57c | 52.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 38c | 51.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 50.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 43c | 46.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 80c | 42.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 51c | 42.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 43c | 35.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a60…ea7dbacked Yes | 60c | 33.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 60c | 32.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 49c | 32.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 62c | 32.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 44c | 29.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 36c | 29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 71c | 28.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 43c | 27.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 50c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 47c | 23.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 22.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 73c | 21.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 53c | 20.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.