World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x641ab7918ec7c72b070f6e34dce21a7c4b2a02cb19891ae0bce86bf6e33e4963
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 7c | 3,302$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.26 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,292$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.09 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 451.01$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.75 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 18c | 299.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.28 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 19c | 225.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 17c | 217.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 198$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 9c | 188.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27eb…25a1backed Yes | 22c | 182.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 12c | 134.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…a7b0backed Yes | 18c | 119.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 79c | 119.05$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 17c | 117.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 11c | 115.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 16c | 95.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa859…d8f8backed Yes | 21c | 94.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 23c | 93.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 67c | 92.63$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 53 | 83%44 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 27c | 88.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 80c | 87.8$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 79.4$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 37c | 78.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 20c | 68.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 33c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 69c | 63.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 77c | 58.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 28c | 52.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 20c | 52.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 52.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 38c | 49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 79c | 45.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 37.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c8…b823backed No | 78c | 31.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…bc63backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 78c | 27.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 78c | 24.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…f1e6backed No | 68c | 21.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 80c | 20.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…b105backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or higher on August 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.