World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc44e468a770954033cc5a2a3bde64e8bc50297c17867f31e8dec03dbcac4578e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 12c | 626.36$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 359.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 4c | 330.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 318.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 21c | 287.68$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.07 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 5c | 268.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 17c | 189.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 182.07$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 28c | 172.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b8…6b28backed Yes | 16c | 170.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 30c | 164$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 16c | 148$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 140.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 131$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 17c | 129.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 24c | 125.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 78c | 112.3$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…a322backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e25…c7dbbacked Yes | 20c | 95.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…f1e6backed Yes | 13c | 93.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 82.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 79c | 70.12$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…5c82backed Yes | 27c | 68.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 65.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 52.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 74c | 50.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 33.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 79c | 32.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 27.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 27.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa393…fabebacked No | 75c | 25.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 76cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 25.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6325…84d0backed No | 73c | 22.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 80c | 17.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 15.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…2e43backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or higher on August 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.