World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or higher on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaaea7a26f7d718ccb2a5aa8637120ae581a2ce0996967f37b6baae6d84fd112
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 8c | 3,412$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,142.33 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 17c | 2,495$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,074.18 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 6c | 850.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.83 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked No | 77c | 753.61$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.36 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 78c | 671.36$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.17 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…f366backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a1…7723backed Yes | 5c | 450.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +170.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 40c | 423.02$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.69 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 416.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.43 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 24c | 391.56$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.61 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 7c | 299.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.66 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 274.76$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.36 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 270.81$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.23 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 40c | 246.85$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 8c | 237.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.34 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 75c | 223$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.81 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…2485backed Yes | 7c | 210.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +159.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 48c | 207.63$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.98 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 6c | 203.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.78 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 201.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 201.22$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec3…d814backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 68c | 177.76$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.96 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 173.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 25c | 170$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 10c | 164.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.96 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 70c | 159.41$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 9c | 134.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 75c | 133.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 45c | 130.58$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 21c | 127.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.14 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc839…bd21backed No | 58c | 117.45$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 64c | 104.94$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.18 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 77c | 101.15$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.89 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 13c | 100.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.37 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 16c | 99.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.07 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed No | 57c | 88.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 15c | 80.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 76c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed No | 71c | 70.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 64c | 62.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 43c | 58.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 76c | 51.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 71c | 49.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…e9e2backed Yes | 77c | 45.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 53c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…8d06backed No | 74c | 36.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 53c | 36.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 43c | 32.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x432b…9be6backed Yes | 73c | 27.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…680abacked No | 67c | 23.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or higher on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.