World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb8801d99ababf1c0919c3b777dcb60a93d7f939d1b696f104f46f304915ad33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 10c | 3,267$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.7 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…8605backed Yes | 1c | 2,032$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 7c | 679.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 18c | 675.81$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.61 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 373.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 361.83$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.18 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 333.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb76a…d7ebbacked No | 76c | 299.63$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.45 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86a1…7723backed Yes | 11c | 274.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +170.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 33c | 270$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 7c | 269.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4f…aff0backed Yes | 44c | 228.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 7c | 221$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 201.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 16c | 189.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 77c | 184.89$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 6c | 161.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 158.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 156.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed No | 76c | 152.18$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 24c | 147.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 9c | 138.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 37c | 134.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 125.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 13c | 124.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed Yes | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 16c | 113.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 10c | 105.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 102.54$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 25c | 94.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 15c | 92.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 18c | 74.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 73c | 72.32$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 36c | 70.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 58c | 65.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 33c | 56.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 58 | 75.9%44 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 48.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 42c | 48.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 33c | 45.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed No | 63c | 44.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 44.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 70c | 40.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +5.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 34c | 34.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 63c | 26.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…8d06backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked No | 79c | 18.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68ae…9df0backed No | 78c | 12.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or higher on August 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.