World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6abf346121922083ccd911f0aca5cdf974ce28ce0e2e4370e39f2b854125e3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 23c | 1,498$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.05 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 25c | 497.3$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 15c | 470.85$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…b48dbacked Yes | 27c | 372.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 9c | 236.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 19c | 216.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 207.61$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 7c | 201.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 14c | 176.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 175.15$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 170.35$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 63c | 146.62$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.93 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86a1…7723backed Yes | 19c | 141.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +170.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 71c | 139.09$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 79c | 129$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 10c | 127.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 10c | 124$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 26c | 120.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 116.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 9c | 115.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 112.42$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 75c | 106.16$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 17c | 97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 18c | 96.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 93.96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 19c | 91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 70c | 89.06$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 82.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 60c | 76.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 59c | 75.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 75c | 69.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 64.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 47c | 64.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 74c | 63.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 68c | 58.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…a322backed Yes | 31c | 58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 58c | 53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 53 | 83%44 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 52.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 52.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 76c | 49.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…fd19backed Yes | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 44.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 41.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 45c | 39.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 78c | 33.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 42c | 32.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 80c | 32.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 76c | 28.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 61c | 26.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x548c…af84backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 63c | 24.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 78c | 23.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 77c | 21.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 68c | 20.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 58 | 75.9%44 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 57c | 19.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 74c | 15.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or higher on August 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.