Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6449f1b69aa95f0392ef8c0e8fcfb6adad143a178a4460892f357ed1dd972ed3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbf…0771backed Yes | 0c | 5,247$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecd…36fdbacked Yes | 6c | 666.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 61 | 3.3%2 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 5c | 470.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 10c | 350.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 4c | 347$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…9d77backed No | 66c | 341.7$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.9 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6176…b4dfbacked Yes | 30c | 332.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 328.23$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 246.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 212.33$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 14c | 209.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 10c | 198.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 178.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 21c | 165.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 152.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 75c | 123.09$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 13c | 118.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 101.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 10c | 99.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 32c | 95.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 76c | 92.74$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 72c | 92.56$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed Yes | 14c | 83.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed No | 79c | 80.48$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 71.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebe…bfc2backed Yes | 26c | 70.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 37c | 62.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 33c | 57.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 57.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 25c | 56.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…477dbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 75c | 48.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 41c | 48.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 69c | 47.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 41c | 45.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 65c | 43.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 59c | 42.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef3f…b576backed Yes | 25c | 42.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 72c | 40.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 41c | 40.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 70c | 34.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 63c | 28.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f2…0ce1backed Yes | 39c | 28.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 72c | 26.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 39c | 26.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe597…b878backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 62c | 23.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 20.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 58c | 20.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…0516backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 15.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or higher on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C or below on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.