Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4175bdc0ffff710e08a4f8419545ec2267795ea3d8c401e4c2017728d359d456
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 687.51$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.91 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 63c | 638.35$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.58 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 38c | 397.79$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.33 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 53c | 361.19$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.21 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 48c | 315.35$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.89 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 51c | 262.89$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.31 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 49c | 251.31$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.66 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 245.3$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.25 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 236$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.28 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 225.55$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 42c | 225$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.2 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 42c | 219.14$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.19 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 66c | 216.97$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.46 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 8c | 195.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 79c | 191.03$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked Yes | 73c | 185.69$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 35c | 181.83$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.46 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 61c | 166.57$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 33c | 166.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.89 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf07a…060bbacked Yes | 40c | 163.3$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 66c | 156.45$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.51 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 155.72$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 155$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.22 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 151.82$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked Yes | 40c | 149.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.47 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 147.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.55 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 27c | 141.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 35c | 140.55$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.93 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 18c | 135$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.15 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 34c | 130$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 47c | 128.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…0629backed Yes | 39c | 126.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.35 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 63c | 124.74$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 34c | 114.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.22 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 65c | 112.75$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.66 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 111.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.36 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 68c | 109.78$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…f169backed Yes | 45c | 108$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 39c | 107.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.49 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…7376backed Yes | 40c | 107.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 107.32$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 103.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 32c | 102.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.51 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 56c | 100.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 52c | 100.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 56c | 95.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 67c | 91.3$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 89.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 32c | 85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 30c | 83.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 30c | 83.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.29 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 82.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 25c | 78.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 38c | 78.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 40c | 77.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 67.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 65.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 49c | 63.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 35c | 62.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 76c | 62.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 54c | 58.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 31c | 58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 35c | 57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 55.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 37c | 54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 67c | 52.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ac…6153backed Yes | 38c | 52.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 66c | 52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 34c | 50.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a7…dfb2backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…eaaebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 27c | 49.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc527…773dbacked Yes | 41c | 49.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes | 57c | 48.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 66c | 47.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 40c | 46.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 58c | 46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 70c | 44.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 33c | 43.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 38c | 43.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 42.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 48c | 41.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 35c | 40.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or higher on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C or below on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.