Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d4b1d6f30c4703195edd8cfae06e6739b414c2f494d3f5050a08bb5d5b48b9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 23c | 3,329$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.56 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 11c | 709$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 20c | 676.75$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.17 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 550.99$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.48 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 20c | 450.52$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.46 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 80c | 419.52$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.77 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 10c | 388.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 351.07$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.39 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 350.68$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 322.94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 64c | 269.56$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.47 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 266.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 68c | 261.93$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 64c | 246.68$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 36c | 243.84$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.22 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 51c | 236.37$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.18 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 235.98$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.71 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 235.03$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.27 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 42c | 204.04$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.29 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62c…adc5backed No | 78c | 193.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf07a…060bbacked Yes | 50c | 186.72$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 66c | 180.2$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 12c | 178.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 22c | 169.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 14c | 166.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 38c | 158.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 76c | 156.26$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 49c | 155.89$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.09 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 65c | 152.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 39c | 151.09$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.77 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 33c | 149.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 62c | 143.22$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 10c | 135.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 133.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 22c | 131$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 128.96$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 79c | 128.06$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 53c | 126.43$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 65c | 121.51$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 79c | 119.03$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 73c | 115.58$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…f169backed Yes | 39c | 107.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 39c | 107.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 22c | 104.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 102.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…0511backed Yes | 49c | 102.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 49c | 101.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 46c | 96.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 15c | 94.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 32c | 94.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 61c | 93.81$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed Yes | 35c | 93.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 82.28$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 61c | 81.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 64c | 80.47$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 73c | 78.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0745…5673backed Yes | 29c | 69.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 66.05$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 63.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 56.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 80c | 56.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 25c | 54.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 21c | 53.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 54c | 52.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 69c | 51.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 41c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 50c | 49.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed13…ac4abacked No | 61c | 48.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 48.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 29c | 47.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 79c | 47.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ac…6153backed Yes | 43c | 46.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 80c | 42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5e…0339backed Yes | 44c | 41.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 79c | 40.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 51c | 38.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 63c | 37.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 59c | 34.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 79c | 34.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb357…db75backed No | 61c | 33.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd370…dc49backed Yes | 43c | 33.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 75c | 32.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 40c | 31.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 77c | 31.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…7f0fbacked Yes | 40c | 30.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd108…5bc2backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…0629backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked Yes | 67c | 27.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed No | 72c | 26.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 34 | 88.2%30 W · 4 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb4aa…bcbcbacked Yes | 43c | 26.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 78c | 25.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…928dbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or higher on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C or below on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.