Fifa International · resolved market
Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x644f5418f5a353ab709b2cb76f044f22a1e40a83645f489eb35e8dbd153f2349
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 26c | 2,598$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.24 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 14c | 2,050$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.63 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5c…a5debacked Under | 21c | 1,910$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 5c | 1,131$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 343 | 30%103 W · 240 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb73d…5adcbacked Over | 65c | 706.12$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…9460backed Under | 7c | 287.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 356 | 19.4%69 W · 287 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Under | 39c | 258.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 12c | 230.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x630c…f294backed Over | 57c | 199.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…c991backed Over | 61c | 161.04$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 7c | 144.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 26c | 114.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 477 | 44.2%211 W · 266 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…3302backed Under | 16c | 93.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 47c | 85.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89d4…dcfcbacked Over | 61c | 82.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -42%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 42c | 78.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 908 | 40.9%371 W · 537 L | -64.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…6516backed Over | 47c | 61.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…3c59backed Over | 47c | 55.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 165 | 47.9%79 W · 86 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Over | 80c | 43.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 271 | 54.6%148 W · 123 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…a387backed Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 1.5this page
- Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 2.5Under won
- Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Hong Kong SAR (-1.5)Hong Kong SAR won
- Spread: Hong Kong SAR (-2.5)Mongolia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.