Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Hong Kong SAR (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd817e3f63b7d768810322ae6e949f13cbb3f0c9ea329fd62c8c2e3fd6a1fe5ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hong Kong SARof Hong Kong SAR, Mongolia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Mongolia | 28c | 1,247$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.76 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Mongolia | 30c | 856.36$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.21 | 343 | 30%103 W · 240 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Mongolia | 24c | 834$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.74 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mongolia | 17c | 745.87$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.88 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…4d8bbacked Mongolia | 53c | 608.34$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.33 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Mongolia | 15c | 595$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 607 | 52.4%318 W · 289 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…40a8backed Mongolia | 64c | 435.61$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Hong Kong SAR | 78c | 388.14$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.39 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Mongolia | 15c | 387.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 631 | 51.5%325 W · 306 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Hong Kong SAR | 46c | 272.32$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.48 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Mongolia | 20c | 259.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Hong Kong SAR | 79c | 242.39$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd065…93e8backed Mongolia | 67c | 164.12$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Hong Kong SAR | 33c | 150$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 228 | 46.5%106 W · 122 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Hong Kong SAR | 40c | 111.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Hong Kong SAR | 77c | 97.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Hong Kong SAR | 47c | 82.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 155 | 43.9%68 W · 87 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…c03dbacked Mongolia | 31c | 71.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Hong Kong SAR | 67c | 66.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 740 | 34.1%252 W · 488 L | -36.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d6cabacked Hong Kong SAR | 77c | 57.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 230 | 62.6%144 W · 86 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Mongolia | 27c | 56.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 908 | 40.9%371 W · 537 L | -64.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Hong Kong SAR | 74c | 53.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Mongolia | 33c | 47.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Mongolia | 34c | 44.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 190 | 38.9%74 W · 116 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…8f64backed Hong Kong SAR | 50c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Mongolia | 50c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Hong Kong SAR | 67c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Hong Kong SAR | 71c | 28.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Hong Kong SAR | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Hong Kong SAR | 78c | 18.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x446d…a0b2backed Hong Kong SAR | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 72 | 69.4%50 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hong Kong SAR (-1.5)this page
- Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 2.5Under won
- Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Hong Kong SAR (-2.5)Mongolia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.