Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9aa6d53e3ba0071a4a3d68097e6055cc6d5b3ce36cecf3631ecd6337c50a4211

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jun 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $40,886
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $42,468

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,886 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5f37…281bbacked Over	24c	2,299$552 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$551.84	228	13.2%30 W · 198 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	10c	2,166$207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,959.46	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under	54c	2,007$1,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$927.11	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Under	12c	1,163$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,022.57	343	30%103 W · 240 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc10…e9b4backed Over	79c	1,076$850 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$850	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	38c	795.08$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.56	740	34.1%252 W · 488 L	-36.1wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8c6…7b39backed Over	52c	759.73$395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$395.06	489	37%181 W · 308 L	-10.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	21c	742.76$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$590.06	1,560	43.8%684 W · 876 L	-4.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca43…b369backed Under	60c	686.78$412 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$274.71	311	56.6%176 W · 135 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Under	14c	520.53$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$446.95	454	21.4%97 W · 357 L	-10.1wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee43…ae9dbacked Over	79c	507.85$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	43	72.1%31 W · 12 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	67cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63f8…23d5backed Under	71c	422.54$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.54	56	50%28 W · 28 L	+3.2wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd60f…5165backed Under	78c	384.62$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.62	76	59.2%45 W · 31 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2cd…607ebacked Over	80c	376.83$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	26	61.5%16 W · 10 L	+4.9wins	+0.19per pick	43cpaid	+65.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb7ed…6fb8backed Over	40c	306.9$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.76	89	55.1%49 W · 40 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8720…ea73backed Over	79c	300$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	-2.1wins	-0.11per pick	69cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Under	23c	242.77$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$187.93	237	32.1%76 W · 161 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x630c…f294backed Over	16c	200$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6ce…ab45backed Under	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	98	22.4%22 W · 76 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	50c	184.95$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.12	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Under	23c	173.91$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.91	257	27.2%70 W · 187 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82c0…02fdbacked Over	21c	172.24$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.94	74	24.3%18 W · 56 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18b6…babfbacked Over	41c	162.2$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.5	212	40.6%86 W · 126 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdfcd…36dfbacked Over	77c	150$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.03	145	56.6%82 W · 63 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Under	21c	137.27$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.19	203	30.5%62 W · 141 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6882…6f08backed Under	74c	135.14$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.14	224	66.1%148 W · 76 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	65cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over	26c	131.16$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7066…50e5backed Over	48c	104.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	122	50%61 W · 61 L	-6.7wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Over	42c	90.5$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.3	908	40.9%371 W · 537 L	-64.0wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Under	23c	89.17$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.66	315	50.8%160 W · 155 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89d4…dcfcbacked Over	25c	80$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	39cpaid	-42%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4ee…e425backed Over	51c	74.51$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	78	24.4%19 W · 59 L	-3.6wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Over	30c	67.72$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	119	39.5%47 W · 72 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9808…5cfdbacked Under	53c	64.15$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.15	150	62.7%94 W · 56 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	64cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Over	73c	62.74$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.51	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	-5.4wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe2e1…6516backed Over	49c	61.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	43	48.8%21 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under	19c	60.59$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.08	3,731	51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L	+55.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under	20c	60.41$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.24	848	44.3%376 W · 472 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5981…3934backed Under	62c	58.26$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.14	384	39.8%153 W · 231 L	+4.9wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Over	47c	53.5$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.41	146	47.3%69 W · 77 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7175…5a88backed Over	79c	50.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	-6.4wins	-0.21per pick	59cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0x29c3…01d5backed Under	25c	49$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.75	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	0%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f2c…9d16backed Over	50c	48$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	282	40.8%115 W · 167 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95fa…bf35backed Under	23c	43.87$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.78	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb90…c03dbacked Over	51c	43.65$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.26	49	44.9%22 W · 27 L	-3.0wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-14%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over	73c	42$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.78	2,380	53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L	+76.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea4a…7fbfbacked Under	68c	40.91$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.09	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…7f72backed Under	33c	40$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.8	137	45.3%62 W · 75 L	-14.9wins	-0.11per pick	56cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed Under	33c	39$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.13	379	50.1%190 W · 189 L	-12.3wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39b2…9460backed Under	27c	37.04$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.04	356	19.4%69 W · 287 L	-21.4wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over	67c	30.3$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.3	681	41.1%280 W · 401 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Under	45c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.5	242	57.9%140 W · 102 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Over	78c	29.98$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.39	373	48.3%180 W · 193 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7885…1173backed Over	50c	27.61$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.72	114	50.9%58 W · 56 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over	46c	27.41$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.51	477	44.2%211 W · 266 L	+9.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over	72c	26$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.7	2,411	53%1,278 W · 1,133 L	+75.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a6b…2f6abacked Over	79c	25.32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	152	47.4%72 W · 80 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Over	78c	24.98$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.49	200	53%106 W · 94 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7891…c020backed Over	50c	24.39$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.18	48	70.8%34 W · 14 L	+5.7wins	+0.12per pick	59cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Under	63c	24.28$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.09	631	51.5%325 W · 306 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x446d…a0b2backed Over	78c	24.13$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.78	72	69.4%50 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	70cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 2.5this page
Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 1.5Over won
Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 3.5Under won
Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 4.5Under won
Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 5.5Under won
Spread: Hong Kong SAR (-1.5)Hong Kong SAR won
Spread: Hong Kong SAR (-2.5)Mongolia won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event