Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Hong Kong SAR (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3497a9493805bfcd4e08520c2a2888526d73035e06bf2a3a0ba68abbbcdfefb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mongoliaof Hong Kong SAR, Mongolia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Mongolia | 41c | 910$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.9 | 264 | 54.5%144 W · 120 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Mongolia | 41c | 700$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413 | 383 | 51.4%197 W · 186 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Hong Kong SAR | 59c | 592.67$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.54 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Mongolia | 42c | 538.53$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.43 | 512 | 50.4%258 W · 254 L | +31.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Mongolia | 42c | 515.91$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.23 | 343 | 30%103 W · 240 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Mongolia | 46c | 422.01$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.77 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Hong Kong SAR | 59c | 400$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 390 | 50.8%198 W · 192 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Hong Kong SAR | 59c | 400$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 384 | 51.6%198 W · 186 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ed…8300backed Hong Kong SAR | 58c | 387.93$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Mongolia | 39c | 316.22$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.63 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Hong Kong SAR | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 1,204 | 48.9%589 W · 615 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Hong Kong SAR | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 353 | 52.7%186 W · 167 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Hong Kong SAR | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 352 | 51.7%182 W · 170 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hong Kong SAR | 62c | 273.24$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.57 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Mongolia | 41c | 270$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.3 | 352 | 51.7%182 W · 170 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Hong Kong SAR | 59c | 260$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.4 | 399 | 51.4%205 W · 194 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Mongolia | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 108 | 32.4%35 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…9339backed Mongolia | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Hong Kong SAR | 58c | 197.76$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.91 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Mongolia | 57c | 179.12$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Mongolia | 41c | 160$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 354 | 51.4%182 W · 172 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Hong Kong SAR | 59c | 156$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.04 | 374 | 52.1%195 W · 179 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b9…4534backed Hong Kong SAR | 62c | 118.29$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…b57abacked Mongolia | 43c | 117$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…e71cbacked Mongolia | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Mongolia | 36c | 102.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.03 | 607 | 52.4%318 W · 289 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Hong Kong SAR | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Hong Kong SAR | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 343 | 51.9%178 W · 165 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Hong Kong SAR | 61c | 98.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 208 | 41.3%86 W · 122 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Mongolia | 41c | 84.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Hong Kong SAR | 58c | 84.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 315 | 50.8%160 W · 155 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Hong Kong SAR | 43c | 82.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 249 | 35.3%88 W · 161 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Hong Kong SAR | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 155 | 43.9%68 W · 87 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Mongolia | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 175 | 57.1%100 W · 75 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Mongolia | 41c | 67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 203 | 30.5%62 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Mongolia | 36c | 66.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…7070backed Hong Kong SAR | 60c | 53.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Hong Kong SAR | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 311 | 47.9%149 W · 162 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Mongolia | 43c | 52.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b42…7cbebacked Hong Kong SAR | 59c | 46.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…dac0backed Mongolia | 44c | 43.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Hong Kong SAR | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 234 | 53%124 W · 110 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Hong Kong SAR | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46f…0e0fbacked Hong Kong SAR | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 162 | 62.3%101 W · 61 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Hong Kong SAR | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 242 | 57.9%140 W · 102 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Mongolia | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Hong Kong SAR | 59c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 362 | 50.8%184 W · 178 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…bbbabacked Hong Kong SAR | 56c | 26.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | +34.7wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +61%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x60a5…f52ebacked Hong Kong SAR | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 177 | 38.4%68 W · 109 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Hong Kong SAR | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 548 | 59.5%326 W · 222 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Hong Kong SAR | 59c | 24.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x446d…a0b2backed Hong Kong SAR | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 72 | 69.4%50 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Hong Kong SAR | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20eb…5289backed Hong Kong SAR | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Hong Kong SAR | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Hong Kong SAR | 59c | 17.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 373 | 48.3%180 W · 193 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hong Kong SAR (-2.5)this page
- Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 2.5Under won
- Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Hong Kong SAR (-1.5)Hong Kong SAR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.