TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Hong Kong SAR (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mongoliaof Hong Kong SAR, Mongolia
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,627
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,940

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,627 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x47c7…cac7backed Mongolia41c910$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.926454.5%144 W · 120 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Mongolia41c700$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41338351.4%197 W · 186 L-1.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Hong Kong SAR59c592.67$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.543,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Mongolia42c538.53$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.4351250.4%258 W · 254 L+31.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Mongolia42c515.91$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.2334330%103 W · 240 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Mongolia46c422.01$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.772,52442.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Hong Kong SAR59c400$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23639050.8%198 W · 192 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Hong Kong SAR59c400$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23638451.6%198 W · 186 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x88ed…8300backed Hong Kong SAR58c387.93$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2255345.3%24 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Mongolia39c316.22$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.6393542.2%395 W · 540 L-27.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Hong Kong SAR64c300$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1921,20448.9%589 W · 615 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Hong Kong SAR59c300$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17735352.7%186 W · 167 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Hong Kong SAR59c300$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17735251.7%182 W · 170 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hong Kong SAR62c273.24$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.574,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Mongolia41c270$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.335251.7%182 W · 170 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Hong Kong SAR59c260$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.439951.4%205 W · 194 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0684…d1fabacked Mongolia43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.5610832.4%35 W · 73 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x656e…9339backed Mongolia44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1126126.2%16 W · 45 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+26.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Hong Kong SAR58c197.76$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.919838.8%38 W · 60 L-8.8wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Mongolia57c179.12$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.852,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Mongolia41c160$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.435451.4%182 W · 172 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Hong Kong SAR59c156$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.0437452.1%195 W · 179 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8b9…4534backed Hong Kong SAR62c118.29$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x541e…b57abacked Mongolia43c117$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.088348.2%40 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf5…e71cbacked Mongolia44c113.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.6411549.6%57 W · 58 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Mongolia36c102.28$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.0360752.4%318 W · 289 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04a5…d093backed Hong Kong SAR59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5937753.8%203 W · 174 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked Hong Kong SAR59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5934351.9%178 W · 165 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb428…74c8backed Hong Kong SAR61c98.93$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020841.3%86 W · 122 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Mongolia41c84.95$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.883,73151.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L+55.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Hong Kong SAR58c84.4$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9631550.8%160 W · 155 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe368…e9edbacked Hong Kong SAR43c82.88$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0324935.3%88 W · 161 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed Hong Kong SAR15c80$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1215543.9%68 W · 87 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa494…4a1fbacked Mongolia41c80$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.217557.1%100 W · 75 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Mongolia41c67$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5320330.5%62 W · 141 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Mongolia36c66.17$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.353,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3c7…7070backed Hong Kong SAR60c53.33$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Hong Kong SAR57c52.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3031147.9%149 W · 162 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Mongolia43c52.63$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301,87348.4%906 W · 967 L+14.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b42…7cbebacked Hong Kong SAR59c46.2$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.262934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x09f4…dac0backed Mongolia44c43.38$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.410744.9%48 W · 59 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8acc…cc29backed Hong Kong SAR59c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.623453%124 W · 110 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b2a…0a73backed Hong Kong SAR54c37.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020047%94 W · 106 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf46f…0e0fbacked Hong Kong SAR62c32.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016262.3%101 W · 61 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Hong Kong SAR64c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.224257.9%140 W · 102 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed Mongolia70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5718053.3%96 W · 84 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Hong Kong SAR59c28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5236250.8%184 W · 178 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd970…bbbabacked Hong Kong SAR56c26.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0819356%108 W · 85 L+34.7wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+61%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x60a5…f52ebacked Hong Kong SAR59c25.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517738.4%68 W · 109 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Hong Kong SAR56c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1454859.5%326 W · 222 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Hong Kong SAR59c24.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.342,79656.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L-9.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x446d…a0b2backed Hong Kong SAR62c24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.87269.4%50 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Hong Kong SAR55c22.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.221,00153.9%540 W · 461 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x20eb…5289backed Hong Kong SAR57c21.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Hong Kong SAR59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.842352%220 W · 203 L-1.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Hong Kong SAR59c17.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.537348.3%180 W · 193 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.