Fifa International · resolved market
Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x159148bc589cbfa06af8c5b5acc879297f79753d2fbd409379f1b024fa08c564
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 18c | 5,970$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.59 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 30c | 3,300$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 228 | 13.2%30 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 1,987$1,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.89 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 67c | 1,408$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.39 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 34c | 1,141$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.17 | 343 | 30%103 W · 240 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4e…12aebacked Over | 77c | 1,056$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.61 | 112 | 38.4%43 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc48…c120backed Over | 58c | 619$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.72 | 374 | 51.6%193 W · 181 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Under | 42c | 616.22$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.56 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 57c | 398.61$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.93 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 39c | 264$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.93 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b1…d4d4backed Under | 77c | 194.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | -10.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…cc26backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 60c | 150.75$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.13 | 289 | 64.4%186 W · 103 L | +42.6wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 58c | 129.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.39 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…a47fbacked Under | 80c | 125.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1,204 | 48.9%589 W · 615 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 58c | 93.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 356 | 58.7%209 W · 147 L | +35.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Under | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 257 | 27.2%70 W · 187 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 58c | 90.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 848 | 44.3%376 W · 472 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 17c | 87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 477 | 44.2%211 W · 266 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 20c | 79.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Under | 74c | 78.71$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 183 | 71%130 W · 53 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 56c | 65.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 58c | 62.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 26c | 55.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 908 | 40.9%371 W · 537 L | -64.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 63c | 54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 205 | 60%123 W · 82 L | +17.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…1173backed Over | 20c | 53.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Under | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 141 | 46.1%65 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…24f3backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 158 | 45.6%72 W · 86 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 37c | 43.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 47c | 43.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…607ebacked Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 40c | 39.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 465 | 25.4%118 W · 347 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 58c | 36.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3393backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 60c | 31.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 315 | 50.8%160 W · 155 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 61c | 30.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 203 | 30.5%62 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 62c | 29.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 258 | 65.9%170 W · 88 L | +40.1wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 74c | 25.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 429 | 52%223 W · 206 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…e96abacked Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e0…b310backed Over | 59c | 22.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…9460backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 356 | 19.4%69 W · 287 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 235 | 52.8%124 W · 111 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 58c | 19.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 59c | 17.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 74c | 14.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 1,459 | 53.9%787 W · 672 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 3.5this page
- Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 2.5Under won
- Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Hong Kong SAR (-1.5)Hong Kong SAR won
- Spread: Hong Kong SAR (-2.5)Mongolia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.