Lol · resolved market
League of Legends: Top Esports vs. Weibo Gaming
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x647f8603df550591ebb09219d81e20ae50d65ecfdd1636c37889d1d89525b531
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Top Esportsof Top Esports, Weibo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Weibo | 19c | 32,958$6,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,241.13 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Weibo | 21c | 20,980$4,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,368 | 364 | 33.8%123 W · 241 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Weibo | 19c | 13,559$2,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,587.73 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bd…bf7bbacked Top Esports | 79c | 9,366$7,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,966.88 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 71cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Weibo | 16c | 6,585$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.78 | 1,098 | 34.8%382 W · 716 L | -17.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed Weibo | 29c | 4,811$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.18 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -18.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6a…1a00backed Top Esports | 71c | 3,451$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.05 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d57…d7ffbacked Top Esports | 69c | 3,110$2,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.1 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Weibo | 16c | 3,000$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 354 | 31.1%110 W · 244 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc5…ba19backed Weibo | 31c | 2,910$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x429d…39a7backed Weibo | 5c | 2,902$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.33 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Top Esports | 76c | 2,290$1,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.5 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Top Esports | 69c | 2,282$1,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.8 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1d…74ccbacked Weibo | 30c | 2,176$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.11 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -13.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…3180backed Weibo | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…1742backed Top Esports | 71c | 1,724$1,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.08 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd773…549ebacked Top Esports | 70c | 1,429$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.57 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Weibo | 20c | 1,250$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,180 | 44.5%525 W · 655 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Weibo | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 126 | 44.4%56 W · 70 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Top Esports | 70c | 846.06$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.82 | 388 | 37.4%145 W · 243 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked Top Esports | 70c | 801.14$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.34 | 137 | 47.4%65 W · 72 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Top Esports | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.29 | 153 | 70.6%108 W · 45 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Top Esports | 71c | 700$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 796 | 53.1%423 W · 373 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Top Esports | 76c | 533$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.95 | 1,356 | 51.1%693 W · 663 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…6ce2backed Weibo | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a30…fca1backed Weibo | 14c | 400$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Top Esports | 71c | 377.63$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.51 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b1…d224backed Weibo | 12c | 350$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 406 | 51.7%210 W · 196 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Top Esports | 70c | 341.58$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.58 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Weibo | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 194 | 51%99 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd0…652bbacked Weibo | 31c | 286.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…7932backed Top Esports | 70c | 250$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 611 | 50.6%309 W · 302 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcea5…c747backed Top Esports | 74c | 250$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Weibo | 31c | 210$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Top Esports | 69c | 210$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Top Esports | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 130 | 63.8%83 W · 47 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Top Esports | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Weibo | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Top Esports | 70c | 185.71$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 205 | 63.9%131 W · 74 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…3db0backed Top Esports | 71c | 175$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 216 | 29.2%63 W · 153 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Weibo | 30c | 170$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +12.5wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Top Esports | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…6daebacked Weibo | 31c | 127.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 155 | 43.9%68 W · 87 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf671…3dd7backed Top Esports | 69c | 124.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 433 | 48.7%211 W · 222 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Weibo | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Top Esports | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed Weibo | 30c | 109.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,136 | 63.1%717 W · 419 L | +51.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…bd6fbacked Top Esports | 71c | 105.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6f…482cbacked Weibo | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec41…1134backed Top Esports | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Top Esports | 70c | 92.86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 618 | 49.8%308 W · 310 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…a26ebacked Weibo | 31c | 90.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 363 | 31.1%113 W · 250 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7752…445dbacked Top Esports | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9375…1dbdbacked Top Esports | 71c | 59.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…8732backed Top Esports | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x107a…4bc4backed Weibo | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…99bebacked Weibo | 31c | 41.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Top Esports | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 228 | 58.3%133 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee1d…cc3abacked Top Esports | 70c | 38.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Top Esports | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 641 | 46.5%298 W · 343 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Top Esports | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 174 | 66.7%116 W · 58 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.