TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: fnatic vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - Conquest of Prague Online Stage Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
EYEBALLERSof fnatic, EYEBALLERS
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,435
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,415

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,435 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde8f…2c72backed fnatic42c3,452$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,461.6528056.4%158 W · 122 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x31d4…a7abbacked fnatic49c2,999$1,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,469.4916447%77 W · 87 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed EYEBALLERS57c2,722$1,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.4557641.5%239 W · 337 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed EYEBALLERS64c2,000$1,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.436,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3db4…d69bbacked fnatic29c1,995$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.6475056.8%426 W · 324 L+47.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed EYEBALLERS55c1,956$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.156732.5%184 W · 383 L-30.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-36.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed fnatic42c1,851$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.91,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed EYEBALLERS57c1,493$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.344,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked EYEBALLERS64c1,284$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.511,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked EYEBALLERS53c1,276$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.983,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d87…a82bbacked fnatic50c960.39$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.585244.2%23 W · 29 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked EYEBALLERS72c740.85$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.197,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf348…e543backed EYEBALLERS68c710.79$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.7123072.6%167 W · 63 L+27.8wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+14.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x906f…2877backed fnatic30c642.21$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.9264854.3%352 W · 296 L+25.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed EYEBALLERS50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2505,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked fnatic42c468.53$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.781442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfa5…17bdbacked EYEBALLERS76c457.98$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.87540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked EYEBALLERS76c419.33$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.112,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed EYEBALLERS56c405.08$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.1216829.2%49 W · 119 L-14.4wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-41.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed EYEBALLERS49c346.64$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.662,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked EYEBALLERS49c332.07$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.2194645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed fnatic49c321.94$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.2933044.5%147 W · 183 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed EYEBALLERS61c317.2$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.7214137.6%53 W · 88 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked EYEBALLERS55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13553545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe85e…2aebbacked EYEBALLERS62c283.7$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.815048%24 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed fnatic43c273.35$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.154,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed EYEBALLERS68c269.58$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.755,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc4bb…22a9backed fnatic23c266.43$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2927647.1%130 W · 146 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d83…c9b1backed fnatic26c262.04$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.041118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed fnatic50c261.63$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.853444.9%240 W · 294 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf768…7831backed fnatic23c244.3$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.271735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa55c…1066backed EYEBALLERS60c227.66$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.8436649.5%181 W · 185 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked fnatic34c191.87$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6110442.3%44 W · 60 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked EYEBALLERS65c181.6$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.013,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed fnatic17c169.91$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.291,21640.1%488 W · 728 L-65.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x961a…aa6abacked EYEBALLERS60c167.86$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2927548%132 W · 143 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed fnatic48c166.46$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6625045.2%113 W · 137 L-1.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed EYEBALLERS70c158.74$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.334,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa073…a3babacked EYEBALLERS74c145$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.71,11768.6%766 W · 351 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3317…166abacked EYEBALLERS52c144.94$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.614252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed fnatic39c143.8$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.112,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6722…865fbacked EYEBALLERS52c140.78$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.9527754.9%152 W · 125 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5229…2befbacked EYEBALLERS50c135$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.858739.1%34 W · 53 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed EYEBALLERS50c131.9$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.679951.7%413 W · 386 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed EYEBALLERS51c130.06$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7373948.4%358 W · 381 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed fnatic35c126.57$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.952,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x494c…8923backed fnatic52c123.36$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5112351.2%63 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0534…5a8dbacked fnatic9c115.55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x407d…574bbacked fnatic42c114.9$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.267644.7%34 W · 42 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked fnatic27c109.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.733,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked fnatic54c107.66$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.351,71052.3%895 W · 815 L-73.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a0c…3ccebacked EYEBALLERS60c100.98$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3941640.6%169 W · 247 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed EYEBALLERS51c99.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4960838.2%232 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed fnatic48c99.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4840247.8%192 W · 210 L+11.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked EYEBALLERS66c99.12$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.635,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e86…7932backed EYEBALLERS52c98.78$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.328346.6%132 W · 151 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fcd…42f2backed EYEBALLERS58c97.48$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9463541.1%261 W · 374 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked fnatic52c97.17$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7622534.2%77 W · 148 L-19.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-36.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked fnatic50c97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.519344%85 W · 108 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked fnatic48c95.52$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8536152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x49ec…ac1cbacked fnatic40c85.8$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.329538.9%37 W · 58 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-22.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3169…6dccbacked EYEBALLERS73c85$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8510247.1%48 W · 54 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed fnatic24c85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.042,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked EYEBALLERS80c77.43$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7138942.4%165 W · 224 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4177…a2b4backed EYEBALLERS51c74.22$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.371,24841.3%516 W · 732 L+5.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed fnatic46c70.2$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.291,03839.9%414 W · 624 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed fnatic38c66.05$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.372,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked EYEBALLERS78c65.63$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.211,31551.1%672 W · 643 L-99.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked EYEBALLERS76c64.84$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.561,04357.3%598 W · 445 L+17.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed EYEBALLERS71c63.3$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.481838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea37…94f3backed fnatic22c61.82$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7832951.7%170 W · 159 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa02…8b07backed EYEBALLERS80c61.75$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3549766.8%332 W · 165 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x928a…4c34backed fnatic46c61.36$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.221861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+33.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked fnatic48c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked EYEBALLERS65c57.64$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1447260%283 W · 189 L+31.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked fnatic48c55.66$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9155843.5%243 W · 315 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fa4…4bf7backed EYEBALLERS77c54.68$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.586100%6 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed EYEBALLERS59c54$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1418545.4%84 W · 101 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed EYEBALLERS64c53.58$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4248635.4%172 W · 314 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2957…b26abacked EYEBALLERS68c49.96$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9623038.3%88 W · 142 L-15.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7eb…bfbfbacked EYEBALLERS51c48.97$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248145.7%37 W · 44 L-10.0wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-24.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed EYEBALLERS60c45.28$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.11,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed EYEBALLERS61c44.37$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4164439.8%256 W · 388 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc09f…d9d0backed fnatic44c40.18$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.781442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8b9…7a6bbacked fnatic48c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.220646.6%96 W · 110 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc55…a069backed EYEBALLERS71c39.82$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.559852%51 W · 47 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdffe…b4d3backed EYEBALLERS54c38.96$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9914630.8%45 W · 101 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0cc7…9194backed EYEBALLERS54c37.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.359251.1%47 W · 45 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39ef…ac19backed EYEBALLERS55c36.34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.35955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab1…86e3backed EYEBALLERS54c30.61$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.083545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd067…9b9abacked EYEBALLERS55c30.31$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7845663.6%290 W · 166 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09f4…58c4backed EYEBALLERS73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.111768.4%80 W · 37 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3145…fcf5backed EYEBALLERS54c28.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0512761.4%78 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed EYEBALLERS59c27$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0736845.9%169 W · 199 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed EYEBALLERS59c27$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0741436.7%152 W · 262 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed EYEBALLERS59c27$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0745240.3%182 W · 270 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a5c…cfa8backed EYEBALLERS68c26.67$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41978.9%15 W · 4 L+4.0wins+0.21per pick58cpaid+31.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xde58…b901backed EYEBALLERS54c26.33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.223470.6%24 W · 10 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+27.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x927d…d2ddbacked EYEBALLERS51c26.02$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae8e…08f9backed EYEBALLERS54c24.4$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2237050.5%187 W · 183 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.