Tennis · resolved market
US Open, Qualification ATP: Luca Nardi vs Federico Cina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64d0bfe3504833d07c6a15baf69ec83fe90f8531e8600ab22bae66037b3123c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Federico Cinaof Luca Nardi, Federico Cina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $259,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $296,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $259,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Luca Nardi | 1c | 49,686$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.21 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Luca Nardi | 14c | 23,401$3,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,253.26 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Luca Nardi | 12c | 19,132$2,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,238.49 | 4,341 | 52.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L | +63.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Luca Nardi | 12c | 8,434$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.78 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Luca Nardi | 11c | 5,180$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.9 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Federico Cina | 79c | 3,993$3,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.14 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ef…abd6backed Luca Nardi | 35c | 2,839$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8f…6dfdbacked Luca Nardi | 6c | 2,312$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.75 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Luca Nardi | 11c | 1,897$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.78 | 3,155 | 57.2%1,806 W · 1,349 L | +176.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Federico Cina | 65c | 1,884$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.11 | 2,444 | 51.3%1,254 W · 1,190 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Luca Nardi | 17c | 1,488$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.01 | 3,798 | 54.9%2,087 W · 1,711 L | +111.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd74…00a1backed Luca Nardi | 17c | 1,458$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.16 | 508 | 58.1%295 W · 213 L | +32.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Luca Nardi | 11c | 1,205$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.21 | 991 | 48.6%482 W · 509 L | +43.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Luca Nardi | 1c | 1,089$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 359 | 56.8%204 W · 155 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed Luca Nardi | 10c | 1,001$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.15 | 223 | 41.3%92 W · 131 L | -20.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Luca Nardi | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,456 | 45.1%656 W · 800 L | +42.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Luca Nardi | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 497 | 52.3%260 W · 237 L | +28.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked Luca Nardi | 22c | 955.5$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.21 | 342 | 46.8%160 W · 182 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Luca Nardi | 17c | 882.34$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb978…fac0backed Luca Nardi | 20c | 744.45$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.89 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03c6…3dd2backed Federico Cina | 67c | 671.64$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.64 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4abd…5a5cbacked Luca Nardi | 17c | 648$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.16 | 417 | 58.5%244 W · 173 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Luca Nardi | 17c | 626.65$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.86 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa57e…ed54backed Luca Nardi | 13c | 600$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…5c03backed Luca Nardi | 17c | 588.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 392 | 57.7%226 W · 166 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c9…f4dabacked Luca Nardi | 17c | 576.47$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Luca Nardi | 7c | 527.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 4,975 | 38.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L | -19.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…2f71backed Luca Nardi | 17c | 520.94$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 466 | 58.6%273 W · 193 L | +24.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3957…35f0backed Federico Cina | 78c | 512.82$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.82 | 175 | 72%126 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Luca Nardi | 34c | 489.86$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.55 | 1,754 | 49.1%862 W · 892 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Luca Nardi | 15c | 428.16$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.71 | 5,422 | 56.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L | +231.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…8895backed Luca Nardi | 13c | 407.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Luca Nardi | 15c | 278.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 471 | 48.2%227 W · 244 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Luca Nardi | 13c | 273$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Luca Nardi | 9c | 245.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 1,745 | 48.1%840 W · 905 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Luca Nardi | 14c | 243.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 6,840 | 48.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L | +58.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Luca Nardi | 12c | 236.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 3,711 | 45.3%1,680 W · 2,031 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Luca Nardi | 11c | 233.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 254 | 51.6%131 W · 123 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Luca Nardi | 13c | 222.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 782 | 48.3%378 W · 404 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Luca Nardi | 34c | 212.44$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.11 | 1,161 | 44.3%514 W · 647 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Luca Nardi | 39c | 208$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 980 | 55.4%543 W · 437 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x085d…c89ebacked Luca Nardi | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Luca Nardi | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 553 | 60.4%334 W · 219 L | +32.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Federico Cina | 67c | 194.8$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 1,878 | 53.2%1,000 W · 878 L | +30.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Luca Nardi | 12c | 160.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1,824 | 46.5%849 W · 975 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Federico Cina | 65c | 158.24$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 860 | 50.1%431 W · 429 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Luca Nardi | 22c | 156.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 363 | 39.4%143 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1d…a01abacked Federico Cina | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Luca Nardi | 36c | 137.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…b26abacked Luca Nardi | 13c | 107.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Luca Nardi | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2,043 | 47.8%977 W · 1,066 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…a72cbacked Luca Nardi | 18c | 94.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb2…1bfcbacked Federico Cina | 79c | 79.96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebde…1de0backed Luca Nardi | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 908 | 34.1%310 W · 598 L | -43.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Federico Cina | 59c | 66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 166 | 53.6%89 W · 77 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Federico Cina | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 956 | 58.2%556 W · 400 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…1cebbacked Federico Cina | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 240 | 39.2%94 W · 146 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…641abacked Luca Nardi | 17c | 63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 340 | 52.1%177 W · 163 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Luca Nardi | 35c | 62.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 3,319 | 48.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L | -52.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa678…dd59backed Luca Nardi | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 44.6%70 W · 87 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2484…5c15backed Federico Cina | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Luca Nardi | 37c | 35.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 2,521 | 38.4%969 W · 1,552 L | +93.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Luca Nardi | 34c | 35.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40e…9addbacked Federico Cina | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 406 | 63.8%259 W · 147 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Luca Nardi | 35c | 28.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2,528 | 36.2%914 W · 1,614 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Federico Cina | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 976 | 44.6%435 W · 541 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Federico Cina | 75c | 25.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 881 | 57.9%510 W · 371 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…2465backed Federico Cina | 65c | 23.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 86 | 66.3%57 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…4b52backed Federico Cina | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 176 | 88.6%156 W · 20 L | +40.5wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Federico Cina | 65c | 21.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 593 | 47.4%281 W · 312 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Federico Cina | 66c | 20.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 1,702 | 48.3%822 W · 880 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Federico Cina | 63c | 20.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 790 | 62.2%491 W · 299 L | +25.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Federico Cina | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 710 | 45.4%322 W · 388 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b4…da40backed Federico Cina | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 370 | 60%222 W · 148 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Open, Qualification ATP: Luca Nardi vs Federico Cinathis page
- Set 1 Winner: Nardi vs CinaCina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.