TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

BNP Paribas Open: Francesca Jones vs Kayla Day

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kayla Dayof Francesca Jones, Kayla Day
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$101,630

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,630 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Francesca Jones23c34,184$7,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,897.552,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9db1…d726backed Francesca Jones20c7,417$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,490.3911832.2%38 W · 80 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+17.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Kayla Day59c7,000$4,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,87064755.2%357 W · 290 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Francesca Jones0c6,537$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.542,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Kayla Day62c3,704$2,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,408.0936968%251 W · 118 L-1.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked Kayla Day56c3,571$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,571.4341645.4%189 W · 227 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Francesca Jones41c3,400$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3948640.7%35 W · 51 L+8.4wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+60.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3cfb…0628backed Kayla Day56c2,040$1,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.6730241.7%126 W · 176 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Kayla Day58c1,754$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.4843051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Francesca Jones1c1,643$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.312550.8%2 W · 253 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Francesca Jones42c1,464$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.241,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50ec…c1f5backed Kayla Day61c1,319$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.715862.7%99 W · 59 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Francesca Jones41c1,289$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.321,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Kayla Day65c1,284$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.546,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75a7…2d61backed Francesca Jones19c1,261$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.5971725.2%181 W · 536 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Francesca Jones41c900$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36646932%150 W · 319 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Francesca Jones39c877.95$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.476140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9edc…b088backed Francesca Jones44c800$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35228424.3%69 W · 215 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79dc…b1a9backed Kayla Day61c713.85$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.853743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x605c…e932backed Francesca Jones22c694.45$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Kayla Day51c627.45$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.4553058.1%308 W · 222 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Francesca Jones49c625.6$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.491,28439.2%503 W · 781 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Francesca Jones42c581$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.381,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Francesca Jones38c574.44$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.2926131.4%82 W · 179 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Francesca Jones42c539$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.6238133.9%129 W · 252 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Francesca Jones39c537.26$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.146,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…d83abacked Francesca Jones38c527.01$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.2713135.9%47 W · 84 L+0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Francesca Jones42c523.81$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22043448.4%210 W · 224 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Francesca Jones41c512$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.921,41441.1%581 W · 833 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Francesca Jones44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22026541.9%111 W · 154 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Kayla Day59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20546553.8%250 W · 215 L-1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Francesca Jones48c492.03$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.072,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7fe…f111backed Kayla Day72c446.4$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.996963.8%44 W · 25 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Kayla Day78c416.45$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.6281349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Francesca Jones44c391.96$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.752,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Kayla Day55c366.18$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.181,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Kayla Day61c356.79$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.23,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eff…d5a3backed Kayla Day62c334.18$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.076668.2%45 W · 21 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Kayla Day68c305.4$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.124,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Francesca Jones43c288.1$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.886149.2%30 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9f8…e913backed Francesca Jones42c288.1$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12119653.6%105 W · 91 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Kayla Day56c267.86$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.8631643%136 W · 180 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Kayla Day67c256.85$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.62,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Kayla Day60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10042046.9%197 W · 223 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a4…3ee9backed Kayla Day59c249.99$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.511961.3%73 W · 46 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb691…b39dbacked Francesca Jones35c240$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.343951.9%228 W · 211 L+17.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97c7…dddfbacked Kayla Day79c227.57$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.664139%16 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5271…0f95backed Francesca Jones42c224$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0810835.2%38 W · 70 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8090…42c1backed Kayla Day57c218.2$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.224560%147 W · 98 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Francesca Jones41c215.08$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.331,97346.3%914 W · 1,059 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7c9…fc36backed Kayla Day59c203.4$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.392445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Francesca Jones40c202.29$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.842,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Francesca Jones50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,26634.2%433 W · 833 L-43.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Francesca Jones12c189.48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.741,37916.4%226 W · 1,153 L-108.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-49.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf800…bdbabacked Francesca Jones40c179.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7227344.7%122 W · 151 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Francesca Jones41c170.73$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9213444%59 W · 75 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Kayla Day80c157.75$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5560943.3%264 W · 345 L-24.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f41…5c9fbacked Francesca Jones48c150$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7215848.7%77 W · 81 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Kayla Day58c147.04$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.7623945.6%109 W · 130 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57ba…d369backed Francesca Jones48c141.67$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688053.8%43 W · 37 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-13.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Francesca Jones43c117.77$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.091,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf58…711fbacked Francesca Jones42c115.2$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6813157.3%75 W · 56 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+14.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Kayla Day61c108.21$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.21,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Francesca Jones41c103.08$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.277,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Francesca Jones41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4134154.3%185 W · 156 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67da…9da8backed Francesca Jones30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+33.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Francesca Jones43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4349142.8%210 W · 281 L-15.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0694…4a4ebacked Francesca Jones42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4226247.7%125 W · 137 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2a0…1f3dbacked Francesca Jones28c89.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2517930.7%55 W · 124 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6aaa…ddfdbacked Kayla Day59c84.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.127346.5%127 W · 146 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Francesca Jones41c83.27$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.427,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1186…0d03backed Francesca Jones41c73.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3016657.8%96 W · 70 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Francesca Jones42c60.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.494740.4%19 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Francesca Jones41c60.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.851,24041.2%511 W · 729 L-2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa41f…6100backed Francesca Jones43c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9411234.8%39 W · 73 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcb9…f39abacked Kayla Day50c59.41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4160661.2%371 W · 235 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Francesca Jones42c58$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3621338.5%82 W · 131 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Kayla Day57c56$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.924,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Kayla Day69c55.5$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.046,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Kayla Day59c54.75$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.42,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Kayla Day56c54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7660240.5%244 W · 358 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Francesca Jones37c52.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.383,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xaa08…d98abacked Kayla Day62c48.39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3924962.2%155 W · 94 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a50…ea80backed Francesca Jones41c43.76$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9418133.1%60 W · 121 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53c5…cb95backed Francesca Jones52c42.4$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0524244.6%108 W · 134 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70a1…978abacked Kayla Day59c38.93$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9388446.8%414 W · 470 L+3.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Francesca Jones41c34.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.251,83153%971 W · 860 L-45.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x370c…3eb1backed Kayla Day58c34.54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.549660.4%58 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31dd…7159backed Kayla Day58c34.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4890340.2%363 W · 540 L+4.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Francesca Jones42c34.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4143353.6%232 W · 201 L+32.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Francesca Jones44c34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9677047.9%369 W · 401 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b0f…e949backed Francesca Jones41c33.87$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.94520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-67.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ac3…5a50backed Kayla Day51c32.7$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.02875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+59.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Kayla Day67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9934744.4%154 W · 193 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9651…0488backed Francesca Jones42c28.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126958%40 W · 29 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4820…bc0fbacked Kayla Day57c27.57$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.864650%23 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca3…483abacked Kayla Day62c27.18$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.338252.4%43 W · 39 L-8.0wins-0.10per pick62cpaid-17%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfedd…be0cbacked Kayla Day60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Kayla Day47c22.01$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6792548.8%451 W · 474 L+20.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa488…91c3backed Kayla Day60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85352.8%28 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.