NBA · resolved market
76ers vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x654992d97e1eb55d2d68dcfd9b89647138e901d65d8a0e4751cd60e5a6812b4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 5,482$2,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,740.85 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 53c | 4,754$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,234.52 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…540abacked Under | 47c | 4,445$2,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,089 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 51cpaid | +59%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Under | 48c | 4,176$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.52 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Under | 47c | 3,830$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 1,570$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.5 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Over | 56c | 1,364$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.29 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…3ff3backed Over | 57c | 1,172$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.93 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 54c | 734$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.64 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Under | 43c | 709.66$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.15 | 165 | 50.9%84 W · 81 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Under | 10c | 497.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 456.93$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.31 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 53c | 285$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.99 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 239.39$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6921…2345backed Over | 53c | 189.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -12.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 179.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.19 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee33…9a55backed Under | 73c | 125.5$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.03 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…7572backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Over | 44c | 92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Under | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Under | 47c | 41.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Over | 56c | 39.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 535 | 39.6%212 W · 323 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 48c | 31.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Over | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 57c | 25.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e65…680abacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 76ers vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5this page
- 76ers vs. Mavericks76ers won
- 76ers vs. Mavericks: 1H Moneyline76ers won
- 76ers vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: 76ers (-2.5)76ers won
- Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)76ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.