TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Adem Bona: Points O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,145

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,145 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2691…f3b8backed Yes36c548.28$200 inWon+$348.284131.7%13 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No65c293.75$192 inLost-$191.751,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf938…f68ebacked Yes41c200.37$82 inWon+$118.044431.8%14 W · 30 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No59c200$118 inLost-$1185,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No67c178.55$120 inLost-$119.8497049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No63c162.16$102 inLost-$102.1690863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked Yes32c125$40 inWon+$8530453.3%162 W · 142 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No64c120$76 inLost-$76.295260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Yes33c102.74$33 inWon+$69.261,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4066…e3c3backed Yes37c94.59$35 inWon+$59.599031.1%28 W · 62 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4cac…a026backed Yes32c93.75$30 inWon+$63.75450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+40.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7473…89eebacked Yes37c67.57$25 inWon+$42.574151.2%21 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed No63c47.67$30 inLost-$30.0350648%243 W · 263 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No65c43.71$29 inLost-$28.5392058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8087…6d7abacked Yes32c41.68$13 inWon+$28.474337.2%16 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No44c31.8$14 inLost-$13.991,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa413…1fe0backed No67c30$20 inLost-$20.14055%22 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-12.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No67c21.32$14 inLost-$14.3483158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.