Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65ee675c24854ecaba4f0337999a7c560fca442b78979669100e91f11f2e7e0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 4c | 1,373$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.41 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 2c | 1,258$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,109$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,007$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 11c | 534.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…4b60backed Yes | 43c | 427.13$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.18 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 347$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6361…3ec4backed No | 76c | 286.43$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.79 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 22c | 266.34$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 74c | 232.22$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 14c | 212.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 8c | 209.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 64c | 207.02$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…6e26backed No | 69c | 203.02$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.61 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 175.98$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.05 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 43c | 175.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…e382backed Yes | 40c | 174.58$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 60c | 166.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.87 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62ef…f1dcbacked Yes | 47c | 153.42$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.62 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked Yes | 38c | 149.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 149.5$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 19c | 140.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 139.92$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 135.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 133.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 16c | 120.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 61c | 117.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…2fffbacked Yes | 23c | 114.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 21c | 103.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3797…efeabacked Yes | 34c | 99.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 59c | 98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 25c | 96.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 40c | 95.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 54c | 94.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…94f9backed Yes | 32c | 92.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 85.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 84.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 71c | 82.12$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6833…2011backed Yes | 37c | 82.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…1a9fbacked No | 66c | 80.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 26c | 79.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 62c | 75.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…3e99backed Yes | 16c | 71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…ea77backed Yes | 21c | 65.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 56c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked Yes | 19c | 61.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 38c | 60.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 58.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 21c | 56.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 25c | 54.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…2162backed Yes | 37c | 53.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 42c | 52.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 25c | 52.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 59c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…9cf0backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…c6adbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…5f3dbacked Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 39c | 48.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 38c | 48.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 37c | 48.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 47.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…54dfbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.28per pick | 36cpaid | -79%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 61c | 39.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fc…69a1backed Yes | 39c | 38.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed No | 75c | 37.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 38c | 33.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 32.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1c…d5ebbacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 41c | 30.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x990e…cecfbacked No | 70c | 28.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ad…3c1abacked Yes | 42c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 55c | 25.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fb…7c05backed No | 59c | 20.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…c3a6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…eaf5backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.