Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2c9a5f2c7adf9cd8d7605d7616f5c5dbc3a048d8f5416a479804cd7006d648c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 1c | 12,628$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,492.28 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 42c | 3,540$1,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,044.98 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 25c | 3,503$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,643.63 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 22c | 2,957$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,305.37 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 37c | 1,784$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.99 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 39c | 1,638$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.67 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 18c | 1,445$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.8 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 1,286$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 18c | 1,188$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.79 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 47c | 1,088$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.92 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 26c | 1,046$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.85 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 3c | 982.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.19 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 4c | 934.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.54 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 2c | 801.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 69c | 760.45$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.03 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 19c | 750.48$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.17 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0123…d399backed Yes | 70c | 709.03$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.22 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 664.37$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.28 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb22…8186backed Yes | 31c | 619.83$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.89 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 44c | 599.53$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.46 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 594.78$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 572.09$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.58 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 34c | 566.71$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.15 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 12c | 506.21$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.52 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x800d…e1d0backed Yes | 41c | 473.41$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.19 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 462$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.51 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 75c | 447.22$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.21 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed Yes | 17c | 446.42$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.43 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 434.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.73 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 11c | 426.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.72 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 30c | 424.01$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.25 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 53c | 415.46$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.86 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 37c | 385.03$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.96 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 37c | 374.93$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.16 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 20c | 371.6$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.55 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 29c | 371.35$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.72 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 27c | 361.22$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.11 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 11c | 341.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.56 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked Yes | 14c | 339.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.79 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 334.9$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.24 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 5c | 330.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 25c | 302.79$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 8c | 299$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.75 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 297$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 15c | 286.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.38 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 8c | 279$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.68 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 52c | 263.68$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.18 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 17c | 257.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 7c | 251.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c84…8ce8backed Yes | 17c | 228.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +505.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xace0…9c90backed Yes | 6c | 222.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.79 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed No | 42c | 192.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.17 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes | 17c | 188.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.28 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 52c | 187.52$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.22 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 54c | 184.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.95 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 12c | 184.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.1 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 23c | 184.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.94 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 80c | 182.42$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 79c | 177.23$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.42 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 54c | 171$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.03 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 170$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.09 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 62c | 169.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.39 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe430…de72backed Yes | 9c | 164.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,003.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 20c | 164.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.33 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 12c | 158$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.05 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 25c | 157.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.6 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 41c | 154.26$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.74 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 70c | 150.74$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.62 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 7c | 150.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 15c | 149.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 148.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 77c | 146.39$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.29 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 12c | 144.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 49c | 126.57$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 39c | 120.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.16 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 35c | 120$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 21c | 118$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 32c | 116.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.19 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 34c | 114$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 66c | 113$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 21c | 112.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.55 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 45c | 111.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…5946backed No | 55c | 105.02$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 23c | 105$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.74 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 19c | 103.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 102.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 15c | 102.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.93 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…d429backed Yes | 11c | 100.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +813.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.93 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…3f8ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…2162backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d1…2100backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.06 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3797…efeabacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 18c | 99.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.18 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 13c | 98.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.98 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 96.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 13c | 95.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.7 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 33c | 93.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.57 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 12c | 91.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.